- Braves / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN | BSSO | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (+200) visit TD Ballpark to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-250) on Saturday, March 2, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:07pm EST in Dunedin, FL.
This season, the Braves are 1-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 1-4 ATS.
Braves vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Braves | +200 |
| Blue Jays | -250 |
Braves vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s matchup with 53.2% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tyler Heineman has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 83 away games (+4.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.09 Units / 50% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+12.34 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+1.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Braves are 2-2 against the Run Line (-0.61 Units / -10.78% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -30.23% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.93 Units / 44.68% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.47 Units / -54.29% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 1-4 against the Run Line (-3.12 Units / -59.77% ROI).
- 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -27.95% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 14.16% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -21.5% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reynaldo Lopez walked 34 of 278 batters (12%) in the 2023 season — 25th-highest among qualified RPs– 12th Percentile. He walked 11 of 254 batters (4%) last season — tied for seventh-lowest among qualified RPs– 97th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez walked 23 of 124 left-handed batters (18%) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — second Percentile.
76% of Reynaldo Lopez’s non-fastball strikeouts were located out of the zone in the 2023 season — 10th highest among in AL; League Avg: 61% — 89th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez threw sliders away 69% of the time (242/351) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among in AL; League Avg: 53% — 98th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (199 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.1 MPH on inside pitches since last season (410 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Opponents had a miss rate of just 11% (14/128) against Chris Bassitt on changeups in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 15% (17/110) against Chris Bassitt on curveballs since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Braves were 28-46 (.378) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Braves were 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Braves are 46-41 (.529) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 164-34 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Blue Jays are 158-36 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Blue Jays are 68-103 (.398) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Blue Jays are 18-13 (.581) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Blue Jays were 34-52 (.395) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .615 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Blue Jays hitters struck out just 268 times in 1,405 PA’s (19%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters had an OBP of .334 (3,202 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Blue Jays hitters had 107 extra-base hits out of 340 total hits (just 32%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 49% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers had an ERA of 3.90 (706.2 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers won only 15% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Blue Jays vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cavan Biggio (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Out
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Penn Murfee (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Eli White (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Jackson Stephens (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
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