- Bayern Munich is a -0.5-goal favorite against Arsenal.
- Bayern earned a 2-2 road draw at the Emirates and are favorites to advance.
- Bettors should play this Same Game Parlay rather than a side or total.
With all to play for in Munich, Bayern welcome Arsenal to the Allianz Arena for their Champions League second leg.
Arsenal dropped points in a thrilling 2-2 draw as home favorites in the first leg. Now, manager Mikel Arteta’s side is a +100 underdog to reach the semifinals.
Regarding Bayern Munich – a -140 favorite to reach the semifinals – they’re unbeaten against English competition in this season’s Champions League.
Here’s a look at the full Champions League odds for the second leg and my prediction.
Champions League Odds – Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal
- Bayern Munich Moneyline: +130
- Arsenal Moneyline: +180
- Draw Moneyline: +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+120)
Champions League Prediction – Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal
Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score & Under 3.5 Goals (+200) – Wait for Lineups
This is a creative way to bet a low-scoring game based on correlative prices.
Both Teams to Score – “Yes” is -190 for the game, a 65.5% percent implied probability with over 2.5 at -175, a 63.6% implied probability.
However, there’s something interesting happening with both team totals in this game.
With over 2.5 goals juiced to -175, one would assume at least one team total would have juice on over 1.5 goals.
That’s not the case. Bayern Munich under 1.5 goals is -130 while Arsenal under 1.5 goals is -160.
That tells me this game features no more than three goals. Both teams have the underlying metrics to back it up.
Arsenal lead the Big Five European leagues in expected goals allowed and held Bayern to only 1.1 non-penalty expected goals in the first leg.
At the same time, Bayern are fifth continentally in expected goals allowed and held the Gooners to only one expected goal in London.
Plus, Arsenal could be without captain Martin Odegaard for Wednesday’s fixture.
Amongst Arsenal players with at least 35 starts this season, Odegaard sits third in expected goals + expected assists per 90 minutes.
The bigger question for this same game parlay is both teams to score.
I trust Arsenal’s attack, even on the road, assuming Bayern manager Thomas Tuchel sends out Eric Dier as one of his center-halves.
In 11 Bayern matches this season where Dier plays at least 70 minutes, they’ve kept only two clean sheets.
However, Arsenal have yet to keep a road clean sheet in the Champions League and still allowed north of one expected goal to Bayern at home.
With the German giants in a friendlier environment, back them to find the net on Wednesday.
Bayern Munich Form
April 13 vs. Koln: 2-0, W
April 9 at Arsenal: 2-2, D (Champions League)
April 6 at Heidenheim: 2-3, L
March 30 vs. Dortmund: 0-2, L
March 16 at Darmstadt: 5-2, W
Arsenal Form
April 14 vs. Aston Villa: 0-2, L
April 9 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-2, D (Champions League)
April 6 at Brighton: 3-0, W
April 3 vs. Luton Town: 2-0, W
March 31 at Manchester City: 0-0, D
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