- Barcelona is a -0.5-goal favorite against PSG.
- Barcelona enters the second leg with a 3-2 aggregate advantage.
- How to play this second leg via a creative prop market.
Following a thrilling first leg in Paris, Barcelona and PSG will play the second leg of their Champions League quarterfinal tie on Tuesday.
Barca returned two key players to the lineup in the first leg and ultimately claimed a 3-2 win. As a result, they’re now -400 to reach the semifinals.
The Spanish side is unbeaten in the Champions League since the knockout round began. PSG, meanwhile, has only one road win in the Champions League this season.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my prediction for the second leg.
Champions League Odds – Barcelona vs. PSG
- Barcelona Moneyline: +120
- PSG Moneyline: +195
- Draw Moneyline: +280
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
Champions League Prediction – Barcelona vs. PSG
Barcelona 1H Team Total Over 0.5 (-145)
When PSG is forced to go up against the strongest European attacks, they tend to struggle early and often.
In the Champions League this season, manager Luis Enrique’s side has played five games against teams 25th or better in xG per 90 across Europe’s top five leagues.
In those games – two group matches against Milan, two group matches against Newcastle United and the first leg against Barcelona – PSG conceded a first half goal four times.
The only success? At home against Milan, who sits 19th in the top five in expected goals per 90 minutes and are the easiest opponent of the trio.
Sample the two road matches against those teams and bettors will find PSG conceded two goals off 2.05 post shot expected goals in the first half, per fbref.com.
As for Barcelona – a side that ranks fifth continentally in expected goals per 90 – they bossed PSG in the first half in Paris.
They scored a goal inside of the halftime interval despite creating only 0.81 expected goals and 0.42 post shot expected goals.
Plus, Barcelona performed very well in their second leg against Napoli, a defense that’s conceded fewer expected goals than PSG this season.
Xavi’s side found themselves ahead 2-0 inside of 20 minutes in the round of 16 second leg. In that match, they generated 1.15 expected goals and 1.3 post-shot expected goals in the first half.
Add in Barca have scored a first half goal in two home league matches against Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid and I’ll back the hosts to score early.
Barcelona Form
April 13 at Cadiz: 1-0, W
April 10 at PSG: 3-2, W (Champions League)
March 30 vs. Las Palmas: 1-0, W
March 17 at Atletico Madrid: 3-0, W
March 12 vs. Napoli: 3-1, W (Champions League)
PSG Form
April 10 vs. Barcelona: 2-3, L
April 6 vs. Clermont Foot: 1-1, D
April 3 vs. Rennes: 1-0, W (Coupe de France)
March 31 at Marseille: 2-0, W
March 17 at Montpellier: 6-2, W
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