- Arsenal is a -1.5-goal favorite against Porto.
- Porto earned a 1-0 win as home underdogs in the first leg.
- Bettors should use this same game parlay for Tuesday’s second leg.
Before Tuesday’s Champions League fixture in London, I’m here to offer an Arsenal vs. Porto prediction and best bet.
Arsenal, one of the favorites in the UEFA Champions League outright odds, finds themselves behind the eight ball for Tuesday’s match after losing 1-0 in Porto.
Still, oddsmakers believe in manager Mikel Arteta’s side to overturn the deficit as they’re -300 to advance to the quarterfinals.
Bettors who believe in Porto to hang tough can get +210 on the comeback.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my prediction for Tuesday’s match.
Champions League Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Porto
- Arsenal Moneyline: -450
- Porto Moneyline: +1150
- Draw Moneyline: +525
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+125)
Champions League Prediction – Arsenal vs. Porto
Same Game Parlay: Arsenal Moneyline & Total Under 3.5 Goals (+100)
I’ll be surprised if Arsenal loses this match outright given their home form this season.
In the Premier League, the Gooners have captured 11 wins in 14 tries at the Emirates and have lost only one match on non-penalty expected goals, per fbref.com.
The results are even better in the UEFA Champions League.
Manager Mikel Arteta’s side holds a 3-0-0 (W-D-L) home record in the competition with a +12 goal differential along with a +5.5 expected goal differential.
In those games, they’ve played suffocating defense, which leads me to believe Porto will struggle to score. Across all three home matches, they’ve surrendered 0.9 expected goals.
At the same time, don’t expect Arsenal’s offense to run rampant in this match.
They struggled immensely in the first leg, generating only 0.4 expected goals.
Porto also held up well in the group stage against Barcelona. In two games, they held the reigning Spanish champions to 3.1 expected goals.
All three of those matches stayed under 3.5 goals, and I’ll be surprised if that trend reverses itself on Tuesday.
As a result, take Arsenal to win in a low-scoring contest as long as the price remains -110 or better.
Arsenal Form
March 9 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W
Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W
Feb. 21 at Porto: 0-1, L (Champions League)
Feb. 17 at Burnley: 5-0, W
Porto Form
March 8 at Portimonense: 3-0, W
March 3 vs. Benfica: 5-0, W
Feb. 29 at Santa Clara: 2-1, W
Feb. 25 at Gil Vicente: 1-1, D
Feb. 21 vs. Arsenal: 1-0, W (Champions League)
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