Aston Villa vs. Bayern Munich Prediction, Odds: UCL Betting

It’s a Champions League home debut for Aston Villa against a European powerhouse: Bayern Munich. 

Both teams earned convincing wins in Matchday 1. Villa traveled to Switzerland for a meeting against Young Boys and captured a 3-0 win. 

Bayern briefly let Dinamo Zagreb back into their fixture with the German side sitting on a 3-2 lead after 50 minutes. However, six unanswered goals gave the hosts a 9-2 victory. 

Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my Aston Villa vs. Bayern Munich prediction. 

Champions League Odds: Aston Villa vs. Bayern Munich

• Aston Villa Moneyline: +310
• Bayern Munich Moneyline: -130
• Draw Moneyline: +300
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
• Both Teams to Score: Yes (-200), No (+138)

Champions League Betting: Aston Villa vs. Bayern Munich Prediction

My Aston Villa vs. Bayern Munich prediction is the Bayern Munich Moneyline (-130). 

The Villa performance this past weekend at Ipswich Town was quite concerning. 

Villa proved lucky to walk away with a point. They lost the expected goals battle 1.2 to 0.8 and the post-shot xG battle 2.4 to 1.2! 

That came against a side currently 15th in the Premier League. Now, they have to turn around a face a Bayern juggernaut. 

Villa actually played okay as underdogs last season in the Premier League. They finished 4-9 SU, including 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS as a home underdog. 

But that record looks a lot different when you consider the matches without midfielder Boubacar Kamara. 

Villa finished 3-1-2 (W-D-L) as underdogs with Kamara, including 2-0-0 (W-D-L) at home. 

But in seven matches without him as an underdog, Villa finished 1-2-3 (W-D-L) with all three results undeserved based on post-shot expected goals. 

They’re also a major negative regression candidate based on those seven fixtures. Unai Emery’s side posted a -8 goal differential against a -9.5 post-shot xGDiff. 

Plus, Bayern’s defense is playing exquisitely under Vincent Kompany right now. 

Over the weekend, Bayern held Bayer Leverkusen to a mere 0.06 xG and 0.49 psxG…in a match played entirely at 11v11. 

Kompany is also familiar with Emery’s defensive structure from his time at Burnley, and he now has better players to exploit it. 

That makes this price way too short on Bayern in my opinion. Take the visitors to earn all three points. 

Aston Villa Record, Last 5 Matches

• Sept. 29 at Ipswich Town: 2-2, D
• Sept. 24 at Wycombe: 2-1, W (EFL Cup)
• Sept. 21 vs. Wolves: 3-1, W
• Sept. 17 at Young Boys: 3-0, W (Champions League)
• Sept. 14 vs. Everton: 3-2, W

Bayern Munich Record, Last 5 Matches

• Sept. 28 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 1-1, D
• Sept. 21 at Werder Bremen: 5-0, W
• Sept. 17 vs. Dinamo Zagreb: 9-2, W (Champions League)
• Sept. 14 at Holstein Kiel: 6-1, W
• Sept. 1 vs. Freiburg: 1-0, W