- Atletico Madrid is a -1.5-goal favorite against Celtic.
- On Matchday 3, hosts Celtic earned their first points of the group stage.
- Atletico have overperformed underlying metrics thus far.
Before Tuesday’’s UEFA Champions League fixture, I’m set to provide an Atletico Madrid vs. Celtic prediction.
When these sides met on Matchday 3, hosts Celtic raced out to an early lead and ultimately captured a point in a 2-2 draw.
Now the sides meet again at Wanda Metropolitano in Madrid, with Atletico once again a heavy favorite. In their first home match of the group stage, Madrid beat Feyenoord 3-2.
Here’s how the Champions League odds shape up for Tuesday’s match.
Atletico Madrid vs. Celtic Odds
- Atletico Madrid to Win: -300
- Celtic to Win: +800
- Atletico Madrid vs. Celtic Draw: +450
- The Atletico Madrid vs. Celtic Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Atletico Madrid vs. Celtic Prediction
Based on recent trends, the spread prediction for Celtic vs. Atletico Madrid is Celtic Goal Line (+1.5, -120).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
I rate this line a massive overreaction to Matchday 3 and expect Celtic to keep it close.
Although Celtic lost the post-shot expected goals battle 3.18-1.34 in Scotland, that statline is a bit misleading.
All of the Scottish champions’ psxG total came from open play, whereas Atletico generated a big chunk from a penalty and subsequent rebound.
Subtract that data from the tally, and it becomes 1.34-1.24 in favor of Celtic.
Reposting this from last season’s Champions League. R3 and R4 of the group-stages, match-ups are the same.
You’ll notice from the previous 2 seasons, a lot of matches followed a similar ‘script’.
I’m tagging last season’s R3/R4 results below in this thread. Sometimes easy to… https://t.co/ATOfRShzgj
— Punter Phil (@punter_phil) November 6, 2023
Even when you account for homefield advantage, it’s difficult to foresee a game script where Atletico generates a comfortable win.
That’s due in part to their weak defense.
In three Champions League fixtures, manager Diego Simeone’s side is allowing 2.08 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes, per fotmob.com.
Further, they own a -0.24 expected goal differential per 90 minutes and have yet to produce an expected goals win over one.
Celtic’s metrics are a bit skewed, given they had two men sent off against Feyenoord.
In their remaining two matches – albeit at home – they have a +0.05 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
With a healthy Cameron Carter-Vickers back in the lineup, back Celtic to do no worse than a one-goal defeat at -125 or better.
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