Inter vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds, Pick | Champions League Match Preview

Before Wednesday’s Champions League second leg kicks off from Madrid, I’m here to offer an Inter vs. Atletico Madrid prediction. 

Inter, a finalist in this competition last season, arrives in Madrid with the edge to reach the quarterfinals. At home in the first leg, the Italian outfit secured a 1-0 lead. 

As a result, Inter is now -375 in the “to advance” market, while Atletico Madrid is +250. 

Here’s a look at the Champions League odds for Wednesday’s fixture along with my best bet. 

Champions League Betting Odds – Inter vs. Atletico Madrid

• Inter Moneyline: +145
• Atletico Madrid Moneyline: +185
• Draw Moneyline: +230
• Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (+100/-135)

Champions League Prediction – Inter vs. Atletico Madrid

Total Under 2.5 Goals (-135)

Last season, bettors saw a clear strategy from Inter Milan: dominate the first leg and hold on in the second. 

Of their three two-legged knockout round ties, the three first legs averaged three expected goals per 90 minutes. 

In the three second legs, the average dropped to 1.87 expected goals per 90 minutes, with two of those three staying under 2.5 goals. 

The big difference this year? Inter’s attack is much better. 

I don’t expect them to score three goals on their own away from home, but I worry about their capability to exploit Atletico’s defense. 

In the first leg, Inter created 2.3 expected goals on their own. At the same time, there’s a lot of game theory that leads me to believe this leg goes under. 

If Inter takes a lead before halftime, I question Atletico’s ability to break down a low block to send this game over the total. 

Plus, I don’t expect Inter’s attack will really go for it until their lead is challenged. 

Given Atletico created only 0.6 expected goals in the first leg and failed to put a shot on target, I question if they can challenge that lead quickly enough to produce an over game script. 

Plus, manager Diego Simeone’s side has really struggled against Italian opposition this season. 

Sample the first leg against Inter and two group stage matches against Lazio and bettors will find they created only 2.8 expected goals, per fbref.com. 

Given all three of those games stayed under 2.5 goals, expect a similar game script on Wednesday. 

Inter Form 

March 9 at Bologna: 1-0, W

March 4 vs. Genoa: 2-1, W

Feb. 28 vs. Atalanta: 4-0, W

Feb. 25 at Lecce: 4-0, W

Feb. 20 vs. Atletico Madrid: 1-0, W (Champions League)

Atletico Madrid Form

March 9 at Cadiz: 0-2, L

March 3 vs. Real Betis: 2-1, W

Feb. 29 at Athletic Club: 0-3, L

Feb. 24 at Almeria: 2-2, D

Feb. 20 at Inter: 0-1, L (Champions League)