- Real Madrid is a -0.5-goal favorite against Bayern Munich.
- In the first leg at Allianz Arena, these teams played to a 2-2 draw.
- Why bettors should expect early success from the Madrid attack.
On Wednesday at the Santiago Bernabeu, one European heavyweight will punch their ticket to the Champions League final.
Madrid is a heavy favorite to reach the final after a positive result in Munich. Although they fell behind 2-1, a late Vinicius Jr. penalty equalized the tie heading back to Germany.
To reach the final, Bayern will need to dispatch a Real Madrid side that’s unbeaten at home in all competitions this season, including four wins in their last five games.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s second leg.
Champions League Odds – Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich
- Real Madrid Moneyline: -115
- Bayern Munich Moneyline: +280
- Draw Moneyline: +280
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+125)
Champions League Prediction – Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich
Real Madrid 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals (-145)
When Madrid have their best attacking trio starting the match — Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo — opponents have struggled to limit them early.
Manager Carlo Ancelotti has started that trio 12 times this year and they’ve scored a first-half goal 10 times. In three home games, they’re a perfect 3-0 to the over against this number.
That record continued in Munich, where Madrid went ahead on 24 minutes thanks to a goal from Vinicius Jr. For the entire first half, Madrid created 0.7 expected goals.
On Wednesday, they’ll get a Bayern side that has struggled to limit good opponents away from home.
Since February, manager Thomas Tuchel’s side has played three road games against teams playing in European competitions. All three have managed a first-half tally.
Including six additional home games against such competition, bettors will find they’ve kept a first half clean sheet only twice.
Contributing to that poor defensive record is the switch to a center-back pairing of Kim Min-Jae and Eric Dier.
This season, Bayern have kept only four road clean sheets with Min-Jae in the Starting XI.
In eight road matches with Dier in the Starting XI, Bayern have yet to keep a clean sheet.
Even if Dayot Upamecano returns to the Starting XI, that still leaves Tuchel with a defensive liability for Wednesday’s match.
Tuchel could opt for five defenders in Wednesday’s match, but that didn’t work well the last time he deployed that strategy.
At Bayer Leverkusen, a side 10th in expected goals across Europe’s Big 5 leagues, Bayern surrendered 1.3 xG along with a first-half goal.
Madrid ranks 12th in xG before adjusting for strength of schedule, so I’ll place my trust in them to score an early goal at home.
Real Madrid Form
May 4 vs. Cadiz: 3-0, W
April 30 at Bayern Munich: 2-2, D
April 26 at Real Sociedad: 1-0, W
April 21 vs. Barcelona: 3-2, W
April 17 at Manchester City: 1-1, D
Bayern Munich Form
May 4 at Stuttgart: 1-3, L
April 30 vs. Real Madrid: 2-2, D
April 27 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: 2-1, W
April 20 at Union Berlin: 5-1, W
April 17 vs. Arsenal: 1-0, W
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