Champions League Prediction: My Best Bet for Newcastle United vs. PSG

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PSG's Kylian Mbappe reacts after missing a chance to score during the Champions League group F soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund, at the Parc des Princes stadium in Paris, France, Tuesday, Sept. 19, 2023.
(Michel Euler/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Oct 03, 2023, 6:18 PM
  • Newcastle United earned a road point at AC Milan on Matchday 1.
  • PSG secured all three points with win vs. Borussia Dortmund
  • Can Newcastle continue their strong home form?

It’s the marquee fixture of Wednesday’s slate as I’m set to provide a Champions League prediction for Newcastle United vs. PSG. 

On the heels of a 0-0 draw against Milan, Newcastle United return home for Matchday 2. Dating back to the beginning of last season, the Magpies have dropped all three points only three times at home. 

PSG, meanwhile, earned a 2-0 home win against Borussia Dortmund on Matchday 1. 

Here’s how the soccer odds shape up for Wednesday’s clash. 

Newcastle United vs. Paris Saint-Germain Odds

  • Three-Way Moneyline: Newcastle United (+150), Tie (+260), Paris Saint-Germain (+160) 
  • Total: Over/Under 2.5 Goals (-160/+115) 
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes/No (-180/+130)

Newcastle United vs. Paris Saint-Germain Betting Prediction

Same-Game Parlay: Newcastle United Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (+125) 

There’s a bit of betting calculus behind this play based on some correlative markets. 

As noted above, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score – “yes” are priced quite high. At the current number, those markets imply a 62% and 64% implied probability. 

However, the team totals are juiced to under 1.5 goals. Newcastle United under 1.5 goals is -145, while the PSG under 1.5 goals is -155. 

That strikes me as a bit odd – if over 2.5 goals is priced that high, one team should be expected to score twice. 

Given those prices, it’s my opinion Newcastle United won’t come out worse than a draw. 

Their underlying metrics support that theory – manager Eddie Howe’s side has a +1.53 xGDiff per 90 minutes at home this season after posting a +1.46 xGDiff per 90 last season, per fbref.com.

Just last season against fellow European EPL teams, Newcastle posted a +1.24 xGDiff per 90 minutes, earning an expected point in all five matches. 

As referenced earlier, Newcastle have earned at least a point in 20 of their last 23 home matches. 

Although PSG recorded a +1.06 xGDiff per 90 minutes away from home in Ligue 1 last season, that came in a league four slots below the Premier League in UEFA coefficients. 

Combine those metrics with the relevant total pricing, and I’ll back this same-game parlay at +110 or better.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.