- Young Boys is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Aston Villa.
- Villa won only one road match in Europa Conference League last season.
- I predict this fixture will clear the pregame total of 3.5 goals.
For their return to Europe’s top continental competition, Aston Villa travels to Switzerland to face Young Boys.
Domestically, manager Unai Emery’s side is in good form. They’ve captured nine points from 12 in their first four matches of the season and beat Everton 3-2 over the weekend.
Young Boys are winless so far in domestic competition, but eclipsed Galatasaray in UCL qualifying to reach the league stage.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my Young Boys vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Young Boys vs. Aston Villa Betting Odds
- Young Boys Moneyline: +360
- Aston Villa Moneyline: -150
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-190), No (+130)
Young Boys vs. Aston Villa Prediction: Total Goals
My Young Boys vs. Aston Villa prediction is the pregame total over 3.5 goals (+120).
How this game is anything but pure insanity is a mystery to me.
Young Boys are frankly lucky to be in this stage. In the first leg of their qualifying against Galatasaray, they allowed 2.2 expected goals, per fotmob.com.
The second leg saw them surrender only 0.9, but it came with Young Boys handing over possession to Galatasaray to protect the aggregate lead.
Young Boys are also shipping scoring chances in a weak Swiss domestic league.
In their first six league matches, they’ve allowed 1.89 xG per 90 minutes.
At Servette — another continental competition qualifier — they allowed 3.64 psxG and 2.64 non-penalty psxG, per fotmob.com.
The good news for Young Boys? They’ve previously succeeded at home offensively against top-tier European sides.
In last year’s Champions League, the Swiss outfit played home games against both Man City and RB Leipzig.
Young Boys amassed 1.05 post-shot xG per 90 minutes against those two teams at home with both matches clearing 3.5 goals.
Defensively, Aston Villa seem unable to keep clean sheets without Boubacar Kamara.
In last year’s Europa Conference League quarter and semifinals, Villa kept zero clean sheets in four matches and surrendered 2.2 psxG per 90 minutes.
Based on those outputs, take over 3.5 goals on Tuesday in Switzerland.
Young Boys Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 14 at FC Vevey United: 4-2, W
- Aug. 31 vs. Lausanne: 1-1, D
- Aug. 27 at Galatasaray: 1-0, W
- Aug. 21 vs. Galatasaray: 3-2, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Yverdon: 2-2, D
Aston Villa Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 14 vs. Everton: 3-2, W
- Aug. 31 at Leicester City: 2-1, W
- Aug. 24 vs. Arsenal: 0-2, L
- Aug. 17 at West Ham United: 2-1, W
- Aug. 10 at Dortmund: 0-2, L (Friendly)
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