College Football Hot Seat: Buyouts, Replacements, & Rumors For 2025

It’s never been more apparent that college football is a huge business worth billions of dollars. 

In the sport’s history, it’s probably never been more important to have the right staff in place than right now. Athletic directors are not afraid to fire their way out of a bad season, even if the decision will cost tens of millions of dollars.

With nearly 30 new FBS coaches in college football this year – more than 20% of the entire subdivision – you’d think that there’s a low ceiling on potential firings this year. 

But heavy turnover is the norm for coaches and players these days, which is why thousands of fans are already thinking hard about the staying power of their current coaches. That hot seat carousel just keeps on turning. 

Here’s a wide look at the many FBS head coaches who are entering the 2025 cycle with a hot seat. 

College Football Hot Seat: Brent Pry, Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech still hasn’t quite reckoned with its place in the modern college football world, which is why a meh season from Brent Pry could easily lead to his ouster in 2025. 

But in fairness, a 6-7 season in 2024 with a roster that included five 2025 NFL draft picks looks pretty underwhelming, in hindsight. 

Brent Pry Buyout: $5.825 million. This is certainly a small enough figure that someone, somewhere, won’t mind writing a check if Virginia Tech’s 2025 season goes south. 

Brent Pry Replacement Candidate: This is pretty spicy, but how about former UVA head coach Bronco Mendenhall? One of the worst-kept secrets in the region is that Mendenhall left in part because of disagreements with UVA leadership. Nobody actually thinks he’s a bad coach, and leading Tech back to prominence would be a heck of a revenge plan. 

Current William & Mary head coach Mike London would probably get an interview here, too. But frankly, Tech will probably have to take a chance on another guy like Pry – a hot up-and-coming assistant from a major regional program that’s ready to move up to the head chair. 

College Football Hot Seat: Lincoln Riley, USC

Lincoln Riley isn’t going to be confused for a bad coach any time soon, nor will he ever lack for a job if he’s fired tomorrow. But in terms of expectations, USC probably expects to annually compete for playoff bids, now that College Football Playoff expansion has afforded the sport a 12-team postseason.

Instead of that, Riley delivered a disappointing 7-6 season in 2024, which followed an 8-5 season from the year before that served as an underwhelming capstone for Caleb Williams’ college career. 

So far, virtually everyone in Los Angeles would call the Riley era a disappointment. 

Lincoln Riley Buyout: Nobody knows for sure, but it was allegedly $90 million after 2024. That report led to (probably correct) claims that USC and Riley were tied together for the foreseeable future, for better or for worse. 

This is another coach that’s likely to remain in place for the next few years for pure money reasons, regardless of how hot his seat might get. 

Lincoln Riley Replacement: How about Eric Bieniemy? USC has both the clout and checking account to make a splashy hire, and one of the great offensive minds of the modern NFL would certainly qualify. 

We know Bieniemy isn’t opposed to taking a college job because he worked on the UCLA staff as an AHC/OC 2024. Perhaps he could finally take the reins of a club at USC. 

College Football Hot Seat: Brent Venables, Oklahoma

Speaking of Riley, things haven’t gone awesome in Norman since he left for the west coast. Brent Venables has been an underwhelming head coach, working in service of a fan base that had grown incredibly spoiled by the previous 25 years of success that preceded his arrival. 

Then, the Sooners did something truly stupid: They joined the SEC.

Now, the perennial conference champion and playoff flirt is quickly sinking toward irrelevance in a very deep conference. The natives are already restless, and another forgettable season seems more likely than not. 

Brent Venables Buyout: $34.9 million. Here’s another buyout that’s probably expensive enough to buy Venables another year in any scenario other than a total collapse. 

Brent Venables Replacement: It’s easy to imagine a scenario where Oklahoma replaces Venables with the younger, unproven, and likely cheaper option of Jeff Lebby. The current Mississippi State head coach is an Oklahoma graduate who was successful as the Sooners’ offensive coordinator in 2022 and 2023. 

College Football Hot Seat: Hugh Freeze, Auburn

Auburn fans live in a semi-permanent little brother mindset, so unsuccessful coaches can get jettisoned quickly. 

I’m skeptical Hugh Freeze will actually be fired during Year 3 in his return to the SEC, but if he posts a third straight losing season, the seat will only get hotter from here. 

Hugh Freeze Buyout: $20.3 million. On the one hand, it’s not that big of a number, at least by SEC standards. 

On the other hand, how many of these buyouts does Auburn want to pay?

Hugh Freeze Replacement: Dan Mullen has returned to college football after a short-sighted 2021 firing in Gainesville. It’s safe to assume he didn’t come back to coach at UNLV for 10 years. A Freeze opening could open the door for Mullen’s return to the SEC. 

College Football Hot Seat: Mike Norvell, Florida State

It’s difficult to find back-to-back seasons at the same school like Florida State experienced in 2023 and 2024. The Seminoles should have been a playoff team in 2023; they struggled to win a single game in 2024.

As a result, head coach Mike Norvell has devolved from the toast of the town to a financial albatross, at least as far as some fans are concerned.

Mike Norvell Buyout: $63 million. This one is a giant yikes all around. Norvell has renegotiated some of his contract, but the buyout is still (amusingly) in Jimbo Fisher territory. 

The Seminoles are unlikely to have another season like 2024. But if they do, it’s going to cost a whole lot of money to oust Norvell. 

Mike Norvell Replacement: The most obvious replacement in the world is Deion Sanders, who may be interested in a newer, bigger opportunity now that Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter have moved on to the NFL. But don’t sleep on career assistant Odell Haggins, the current associate head coach who has been on the FSU football staff since 1994. 

College Football Hot Seat: Luke Fickell

Wisconsin is one of the most successful and consistent programs of the last 20 years. It also has a historical identity that tends to endure from one coaching staff to another.

Neither of those things has been true since Wisconsin brought Luke Fickell up from Cincinnati. The Badgers have struggled to remain competitive in a divisionless Big Ten that no longer provides an easy Big Ten West schedule. 

Fickell has also tried to move Wisconsin toward more modern spread offensive principles, with little success thus far.

Everyone knows Fickell is a good coach. But if he’s trying to jam a round peg into a square hole, the ending may be predetermined.

Luke Fickell Buyout: $40 million. This feels like a number big enough that Fickell is functionally safe, short of an epically bad year. 

Luke Fickell Replacement: Lance Leipold. The current Kansas head coach is from Jefferson, Wisconsin. He played and coached at Division III powerhouse Wisconsin-Whitewater. Whenever the Badgers make their next coaching move, it seems inevitable that Leipold will be the lead candidate. 

College Football Hot Seat: Mike Gundy

For the most part, Mike Gundy has been one of the models of consistency and achievement in college football. 

Life comes at you fast, though, and 2024 was a total train crash. History says that Gundy will get the train back on the tracks, but he’s already one of the longest-tenured coaches in college football. 

Perhaps the 2024 disaster broke something with Cowboys fans that is unfixable. 

Mike Gundy Buyout: $15 million. Gundy’s buyout was $25 million a year ago, but he agreed to a smaller buyout as an acknowledgement that 2024 was awful. Oklahoma State now has a flat rate to buy him out at $15 million through the end of the 2027 season; then, the number drops to $10 million in 2028. 

Mike Gundy Replacement: Zac Robinson, Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator. The former Pokes quarterback has mostly worked on the NFL side of things, but he was the rumored No. 1 replacement option for Gundy during the ‘24 maelstrom. If things don’t improve in Stillwater, I suspect he’s still the administration’s go-to guy. 

College Football Hot Seat: Trent Dilfer, UAB

NFL journeyman quarterback Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl in his only season as the quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens. After he was done playing, he leveraged his resume, wit, and self-deprecating charm into a long-running gig as an ESPN analyst.

Dilfer joined the coaching ranks in 2019, taking the job at a private K-12 prep school in Nashville called Lipscomb Academy. 

After a 7-6 rookie campaign, Dilfer won 37 games from 2020-22. He also continued to make high-profile media appearances on “The Ryen Russillo Podcast” and elsewhere, gaining national publicity that is virtually unprecedented for a prep coach. 

That publicity helped him leverage directly to an FBS coaching job, where he jumped on with UAB in 2023. 

But Dilfer’s tenure in Birmingham was bad in 2023 and worse in 2024. The Blazers won at least six games in seven consecutive seasons from 2014-22. Dilfer went 4-8 in his inaugural season and beat only two FBS opponents last year. 

The fan base has quickly turned on him, partly thanks to unusual side comments and media interactions that have exacerbated the on-field results.

It’s tough to jump to the top of the college football hot seat conversation as a second-year G5 coach, but Dilfer did it. If he doesn’t turn things around in Year 3, there’s a good chance he’ll be chased out of town. 

Trent Dilfer Buyout: Dilfer doesn’t have a structured buyout. If fired without cause, he will be owed the remaining balance of his five-year contract. Heading into 2025, that’s about $3.3 million.

Trent Dilfer Replacement: The top choice here is probably UL Monroe head coach Bryant Vincent, who was hired as UAB offensive coordinator in 2018 and served as the interim head coach for 2022 after Bill Clark left the Blazers for health reasons. 

UAB athletic director Mark Ingram opted to hire Dilfer instead of keeping Vincent, who worked as the New Mexico OC in 2023 before being hired by Monroe for this season. 

Since Monroe is historically a hard place to win, Vincent could parlay a decent 2024 season with the Warhawks into a better G5 job with more resources.

College Football Hot Seat: Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops has cultivated a reputation for doing less with more at Kentucky. Discounting 2020 for its Covid strangeness, Stoops posted seven consecutive winning seasons from 2016-23. 

Unfortunately, the bottom fell out in 2024, and the Wildcats finished next to last in an SEC that’s suddenly deep and divisionless. Kentucky can no longer count on a lighter SEC East schedule, which could be a destabilizing factor. 

Stoops deserves far more latitude after a decade of program-building and good work. That said, it’s virtually impossible these days to say when power programs will throw in the towel with an underperforming coach. 

Mark Stoops Buyout: $37.5 million. If Stoops’ history won’t save him in the event of a challenging 2025, maybe his hefty buyout will. Kentucky would owe Stoops nearly $40 million if it fired him this year. 

Mark Stoops Replacement Candidate: Jon Sumrall is a former Kentucky linebacker (2002-04) who returned to Lexington as a positional coach in 2019 before taking the Troy job in 2022. He promptly won two conference titles and upgraded to Tulane for 2024. At this point, a power-conference job offer is a mere formality.

College Football Hot Seat: Brent Brennan, Arizona

Arizona football had been in a dreadful place for years before the Wildcats popped with a great season under Jedd Fisch in 2023.

Naturally, Fisch was immediately raided by Washington, which was itself raided by Alabama after Nick Saban retired. That, along with a conference move to the Big 12, set the stage for a disappointing 2024 season under Brent Brennan. 

Brent Brennan Buyout: $7.5 million. Arizona has a pretty high pain tolerance these days, in addition to some larger university money issues, so it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats flushing Brennan after just two years.

Brent Brennan Replacement Candidate: Danny Gonzales was brought onto the Arizona staff in 2024 as special teams coordinator and linebackers coach after working as the head coach of the dreadful New Mexico program for four seasons. He was elevated to defensive coordinator in 2025. 

A program with the financial issues that Arizona has could do a lot worse than promoting an in-house candidate with prior head coaching experience. 

College Football Hot Seat: Sam Pittman, Arkansas

Arkansas reached its high-water mark with nine wins in 2021, capping the season with a victory in the Outback Bowl. Since then, Arkansas has floated near the .500 mark with both good wins and embarrassing losses.

The Razorbacks are some combination of respectable, mediocre, and forgettable. If Arkansas feels like it can do better, then it may cut ties with Pittman after a decent few years for an otherwise struggling program.

Sam Pittman Buyout: $9.55 million. Pittman’s contract and buyout are pretty complicated. His buyout is based on whether or not the Razorbacks are above or below .500 since the start of the 2021 season, and right now, they’re one game underwater. 

That means Pittman would be owed only 50% of his remaining contract, whereas he’d get 75% if Arkansas was north of .500. 

Because Pittman is currently under contract through 2027, and an automatic $250,000 raise kicked in after beating Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl, that brings Pittman’s annual salary to $5.5 million. Factor in a pair of potential $1.3 million retention bonuses, and I have the remaining value of his contract clocked at $19.1 million. Half of that gets us the $9.55 million buyout – and honestly, someone should double-check me on that. Isn’t math great?

Sam Pittman Replacement: As a WVU guy, I regret to inform you that second marriages are en vogue these days. Should Arkansas look to move on from Pittman, the easiest and most convenient replacement is already in house: former head coach and current offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. 

College Football Hot Seat: Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech

There’s not much to say here. The former Texas Tech quarterback (2000-03) and offensive coordinator (2013-21) just hasn’t done much in a deeply mediocre Conference USA.

After a 5-8 campaign in 2024, Cumbie needs a decent season in Year 4 at LaTech. If he can’t improve his 11-26 mark and get north of .500 in a bad conference, the Bulldogs will strongly consider a change.

Sonny Cumbie Buyout: Cumbie’s buyout information isn’t publicly known, but he appears to have about $2 million left on his current contract. That ends after the 2026 season. 

Sonny Cumbie Replacement: Ron Roberts, executive head coach at Florida. The former head coach at Division II Delta State and FCS Southeastern Louisiana is currently soaking in some FBS experience in Gainesville under Billy Napier, with the presumed intention of one day taking his first FBS job as a head coach. 

The best move would be to return to Louisiana, where he’s deeply experienced in the local culture and recruiting scene. Louisiana Tech is most likely the first job that will come open. 

College Football Hot Seat: Ricky Rahne, Old Dominion

Old Dominion struggles with fan support. It’s in a highly competitive state, with two power programs and two very well-funded and successful G5 programs.

All that said, the upshot of ODU has always been the fertile recruiting all around it in Virginia’s famous 757 recruiting region. And while ODU has seemed slightly more competitive in the rugged Sun Belt East under Ricky Rahne, it’s still looking for that first winning season since 2016. 

This is a program that hired a GM this offseason. It’s clearly trying to compete with in-state brethren James Madison and Liberty, so it wants a coach that can deliver. If Rahne can’t get the Monarchs over the hump in Year 5, the administration will likely consider a change. 

Ricky Rahne Buyout: Rahne’s buyout information isn’t publicly known, but he’s currently owed about $1.7 million on the balance of his contract. Like Sonny Cumbie, it’s currently set to end after the 2026 season. 

Ricky Rahne Replacement: If Michael Vick is following the Deion Sanders model, he’ll be looking for a suitable program to jump to after FCS Norfolk State. If ODU comes available, he won’t even have to leave the 757. 

That said, Vick is sorely inexperienced as a head coach, so he may not be ready for FBS consideration – especially for a job as complex and uphill as Old Dominion. The administration may look to FCS Richmond’s Russ Huesman as a potential stopgap option, though he would almost instantly be one of the oldest coaches in FBS college football. 

Kenni Burns (Fired)

Technically, Kenni Burns was fired for cause after what appears to be reckless spending practices with his P-card, plus other related issues. 

But Burns, who was 1-23 since arriving at Kent State in 2023, didn’t exactly do himself any favors on the field, either. If he wasn’t fired for cause, he’d have been on the hot seat in 2025 anyway.

Offensive coordinator Mark Carney took over as interim head coach. 

Kenni Burns Replacement: Assuming Kent State doesn’t want to hand Carney a long-term contract, FCS Youngstown State head coach Doug Phillips is an interesting candidate. 

Like Kent State, Youngstown was down bad when Phillips arrived in 2020, but the record improved in 2021, 2022, and again in 2023. The Penguins actually made the FCS playoffs in 2023, which is no small feat in the rugged Missouri Valley. Phillips is a 1991 graduate of Toledo, so he knows the MAC well and could be a positive addition to Kent State in the event of an upward Ohio move.