- College football bowl games are constantly changing, thanks to the betting market.
- College football line movement can open up opportunities for counter-betting.
- Tracking line movement for Iowa State-Arizona State and more.
As everyone knows, college football odds are refreshed by the online sportsbook at the beginning of each new week.
What happens with those odds after opening is up to the market. It’s also critical for advantage bettors to watch.
Market movements can reveal which sides or totals sharp bettors believe to be wise bets; however, too much line movement can also open up valuable opportunities to seize the value by betting against the line movement from the sportsbook’s opening line.
That’s why I pay close attention to the point spreads of key college football games. I report the biggest moves here in order to help bettors make the most informed decisions ahead of kickoff.
College Football Line Movement (Conference Championship Week)
| Net Odds Change | Current Line | Opening Line |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | SMU -2.5 | Clemson -1 |
| 3.5 | Arizona State -2.5 | Iowa State -1 |
| 2 | Tulane -6 | Tulane -4 |
| 2 | Clemson vs. SMU Total: 56.5 | Clemson vs. SMU Total: 54.5 |
| 2 | Louisiana -5.5 | Louisiana -3.5 |
Clemson vs. SMU
Opening Spread: Clemson -1; Current Spread: SMU -2.5
Opening Total: 54.5; Current Total: 56.5
The favorite flipped here, which is a little bit interesting because of the dialogue around SMU and the Mustangs’ strength of schedule.
Arguably the more interesting thing here is the movement in the totals market. This is the only early-week total that is seeing upward movement instead of the downward movement that’s typical for a championship week.
Iowa State vs. Arizona State
Opening Spread: Iowa State -1; Current Spread: Arizona State -2.5
The market is buying Arizona State in spite of the key injury to ASU leading receiver Jordyn Tyson.
Tulane vs. Army
Opening Spread: Tulane -4; Current Spread: Tulane -6
Tulane is getting popped out closer to a full touchdown favorite in spite of last week’s loss to Memphis.
Marshall vs. Louisiana
Opening Spread: Louisiana -3.5; Current Spread: Louisiana -5.5
Marshall is one of the clearest fade targets of the week after several weeks of rumors that head coach Charles Huff is out the door to fellow Sun Belt school Southern Miss.
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