College Football Win Totals: Odds & Futures Bets For 2024

Back in the spring, the BetMGM online sportsbook released a popular piece of the college football betting odds market: College Football Win Totals.

Now, you can scour the sportsbook, examining win total projections for every single P5 team ahead of the 2024 season. 

This first chart includes win totals for some of the biggest college football brands and championship contenders in Division I FBS.

College Football Win Totals 2024

Ohio State Win Total 2024

• Current Ohio State Win Total: 10.5 (Over -165 / Under +140)

If you’ve been checked out since last season’s national championship game, you may be surprised to see Ohio State atop the win total market. But as I wrote about recently, Ohio State championship odds have been arguably the biggest story of the offseason. There is a tremendous amount of appetite for the Buckeyes in 2024 futures markets. 

Ohio State is loaded with tons of NFL talent this season, and the season comes down to three key games: at Oregon, at Penn State, and home against archrival Michigan.

If you believe, like I do, that Michigan will take a big step back this year, it’s probably reasonable to assume an Ohio State win against the Wolverines this year. That leaves Ohio State in need of a split of their two major road contests.

Georgia Win Total 2024

• Current Georgia Win Total: 10.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)

Georgia was the No. 1 team throughout most of the 2023 season before losing its one and only game in the SEC title game to Alabama. 

With Heisman odds favorite Carson Beck and many defensive contributors back, the market understandably likes the Bulldogs to win at least 11 regular-season games for a fourth straight season.

Oregon Win Total 2024

• Current Oregon Win Total: 10.5 (Over +100 / Under -120)

With Jim Harbaugh’s departure from Michigan, Oregon is widely seen by the college football odds market as the most likely challenger to Ohio State atop the Big Ten standings in 2024.

Even if you assume they lose the home head-to-head meeting against the Buckeyes, there’s a strong chance the Ducks go 11-0 against the remaining schedule. 

For over bettors, that makes Oregon a much more interesting win total target than a hyper-juiced Ohio State team. 

Texas Win Total 2024

• Current Texas Win Total: 10 (Over -130 / Under +110)

Steve Sarkisian has Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns rolling with the 2024 season on the horizon, so the market likes Texas’ chances to return to the CFP for a second straight season. 

Texas is the only team that made last year’s playoff which returns its head coach this season. That means the top of this year’s SEC standings could have a distinct Big 12 pedigree.

With the win total now down to 10 from 10.5, this is an increasingly attractive piece of the college football odds market. I believe Texas will be a clear favorite to win 10 of its 12 games, with Georgia and at Texas A&M being the two most likely contests where the Longhorns lose. 

Under that assumption, betting an over against the 10 (instead of the 10.5) essentially makes this a free roll. 

Notre Dame Win Total 2024

• Current Notre Dame Win Total: 10.5 (Over +135 / Under -175)

Brian Kelly coached Notre Dame to at least 11 regular-season wins three times during his tenure. With its historical rivals falling off in 2024, can Marcus Freeman get the Irish back to that level?

Penn State Win Total 2024

• Current Penn State Win Total: 9.5 (Over -165 / Under +140)

Penn State is no longer trapped in the Big Ten East with Ohio State and Michigan. 

That could be great news for a program that happened to win 10 regular-season games anyway in each of the last two seasons. (I wrote more about this in my College Football Playoff odds breakdown.)

Utah Win Total 2024

• Current Utah Win Total: 9.5 (Over -125 / Under +105)

The Big 12 is in for another year of massive change with four former Pac-12 teams entering as Texas and Oklahoma leave. 

As seasoned Big 12 bettors know, preseason handicapping for Big 12 football almost always starts with big favorite numbers for the Sooners and Longhorns, and goes from there. Clearly, this year will offer a stark departure from that sort of procedure.

At the moment, the market favors Chris Klieman’s steady program at Kansas State, as well as newcomer Utah. 

The Utes have great year-to-year consistency and physicality, as well as a manageable schedule that includes Houston, BYU, UCF, Utah State, and Southern Utah. They’re a great target to reach 10 wins and go over their win total.

Ole Miss Win Total 2024

• Current Ole Miss Win Total: 9.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)

Prior to 2020, Ole Miss had never won 10 regular-season games in its history. Lane Kiffin has done it twice in four seasons, including last year. 

Florida State Win Total 2024

• Current Florida State Win Total: 9.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)

The Seminoles are swapping Jordan Travis for DJ Uiagalelei. Can they maintain that momentum from 2023?

LSU Win Total 2024

• Current LSU Win Total: 9.5 (Over +140 / Under -165)

Brian Kelly needs to replace Jayden Daniels and improve an unusually porous LSU defense. This 9.5 is a big number, and with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, the SEC has rarely been deeper or more challenging than this season. 

But in the event that quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is effective and the LSU defense returns to form, there could be some value in chasing a rich +145 price tag on the over. Imagine a scenario where A&M isn’t quite ready to compete in Year 1 of Mike Elko and Alabama falls apart down the stretch because the schedule is too difficult. 

There’s definitely a world where LSU is closer to good than great, but they’re still 10-2 or 11-1 at the end of the regular season because the schedule broke their way. Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma are all in Baton Rouge, and the Tigers dodge Texas, Georgia, and Missouri. 

Alabama Win Total 2024

• Current Alabama Win Total: 9.5 (Over +110 / Under -130)

I wouldn’t want to follow Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa, but Kalen DeBoer apparently doesn’t mind. 

His first task, at least for win total futures bettors, will be to win 10 games against a regular-season schedule that includes Wisconsin, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, Oklahoma, and Auburn. 

Yikes.

Missouri Win Total 2024

• Current Missouri Win Total: 9.5 (+130 / -155)

Missouri is an 11-win team that brings back head coach Eli Drinkwitz, quarterback Brady Cook, and 14 total starters. That includes nine on offense. The defensive line won’t be as good as it was last year, but the Tigers will retain one of the best offenses in the SEC. 

Perhaps most importantly, the schedule overlords have blessed Missouri with a very winnable slate whose toughest challenges are at Texas A&M and Alabama. Given the turnover that both programs are experiencing, Missouri could easily split the pair or even sweep to 2-0. 

The market is down on a repeat performance from the Tigers because they lost some NFL-quality defensive linemen. It would be unusual for a non-elite program to remain near the top of the SEC this year, with the conference adding Texas & Oklahoma and moving to a non-division format. Sharps may be a tad reluctant to buy a second-tier program near the top of the market. 

I’m generally a fan of the sell-high approach, but in this case, I believe Missouri will remain near the top of the SEC standings because of its schedule and what it retains from last season. I would pay juice for Over 9.5, so getting it at +130 is a steal. 

Michigan Win Total 2024

• Current Michigan Win Total: 9 (Over +115 / Under -140)

Michigan had accumulated a lot of talent over the last few years under former coach Jim Harbaugh. It used that talent to win the 2023 national championship … then watched most of it walk out the door.

Running back Donovan Edwards will be one of the only recognizable faces to non-Michigan fans in 2024, as quarterback JJ McCarthy and head coach Jim Harbaugh are both lost to the NFL alongside numerous other players, particularly on defense. 

News doesn’t get any easier in the scheduling department, as Michigan draws Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State with a win total of nine. I don’t believe Michigan has much of a chance against any of those three, which means this is essentially a free roll against a nine for the under.

College Football Win Totals: New Order In the SEC

The last 15 years of SEC football has been largely characterized by Nick Saban’s Alabama dynasty, alongside the rise and fall of one or two other contenders. Auburn in the early 2010s, for example, or Georgia under Kirby Smart.

Like the Big 12, the SEC is in for a major departure in 2024. Saban is gone, and it’s impossible to know exactly where Alabama will fit into the conference in its post-dynasty era. 

Georgia is a sensible preseason favorite, but with the demolition of the divisional model, the Bulldogs will no longer be able to coast through an easier path in the SEC East.

Texas, which won last year’s Big 12 and went to the playoff, enters the conference as a worthy challenger with an established coach/quarterback combination. 

Ole Miss, Missouri, and Tennessee could all be powerful challengers. One will probably get to 10 wins; another might struggle to get to .500. But which one is the right underdog to bet on? (Personally, my money is on Missouri.)

Remaining P5 Schools: College Football Over/Under Wins

SMU Win Total 2024

• Current SMU Win Total: 8.5 (Over +115 / Under -135)

As I’ve done more research this summer, SMU has become one of my absolute favorite sleepers anywhere in the college football futures market. I’m loading up on the +1600 conference odds, the +1100 playoff odds, and the over 8.5 (+115) win total.

Here, I’ll focus on the win total. SMU brings back Rhett Lashlee and 15 starters, including quarterback Preston Stone. With the move to the ACC, you might expect a dramatic step up in competition, but the Mustangs were dealt arguably the easiest schedule of any top-half ACC school.

SMU should cruise against Nevada, Houston Christian, Cal, Stanford, and Duke. It should be comfortably favored in games against BYU, Virginia, Boston College, and probably Pittsburgh.

The toughest matchups are Florida State, at Louisville, and the Iron Skillet game against TCU. But even if SMU loses all three of those games, it can still go over 8.5 by sweeping the rest of its deeply winnable schedule. A split or better against FSU and Louisville should have them in the ACC title picture.

UCF Win Total 2024

• Current UCF Win Total: 7.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)

I wanted to like UCF so badly in 2024. KJ Jefferson is an awesome get in the transfer quarterback market, and I am a big fan of the staff that Gus Malzahn has put together. 

Unfortunately, the number and the schedule just aren’t there for me. UCF’s road games include TCU, Florida, Iowa State, and West Virginia. Home games against Utah and Arizona will be difficult. It just seems like there are probably five losses here, even if UCF sweeps the should-win games. 

If this was 6.5 with a fat number on the over, I’d be willing to take a shot. At 7.5 with a split vig, I’m leaning under. It feels like UCF is looking at a 7-5 record.

Wisconsin Win Total 2024

• Current Wisconsin Win Total: 6.5 (Over -150 / Under +125)

The Badgers bring 15 starters back in 2024 and have delivered a winning season for 22 straight years.

That’s about where the positives end. Wisconsin’s 2024 schedule is brutally difficult: Alabama, at USC, at Rutgers, Penn State, at Iowa, Oregon, at Nebraska. Many of those are all in a row during the middle of the season. 

Wisconsin should handle Western Michigan, FCS South Dakota, Purdue, and Northwestern. I’m not sure they can get to three wins against the remainder of their schedule. Considering the +125, the under is clearly the side I prefer. 

West Virginia Win Total 2024

• Current West Virginia Win Total: 6.5 (Over -135 / Under +110)

Call me a homer if you want, but I was dead on about expecting a jump up into the middle of the pack from last year’s West Virginia team, which was picked to finish dead last in the Big 12. The Mountaineers finished at 8-4 in the regular season before beating North Carolina in their bowl game.

My suspicion is that this year’s team should be roughly the same or slightly better than last year, but a harder schedule will leave the record to be roughly the same or slightly worse. Garrett Greene is back at quarterback, and Neal Brown in Year 6 has finally built up the strong run game and offensive line that he was known for at Troy. That will continue to work in 2024. In total, eight starters are back on offense.

The problem here is the schedule. WVU hosts Penn State in Week 1 and travels to archrival Pittsburgh in Week 3. Big 12 games include Kansas, at Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, at Arizona, and UCF. 

The Oklahoma State game is where I feel I have a real edge over the market. The Mountaineers are 1-8 against Oklahoma State since 2015, and a road trip to Stillwater will be an expected loss in many eyes. That could, of course, prove true.

That said, I expect rest and energy to be a huge factor in this game. WVU is coming off a Week 5 bye; Oklahoma State will have played both Big 12 co-favorites, Kansas State and Utah, over the previous two weeks. I like an unexpected win for West Virginia in this spot, which gives the Eers a lot of breathing room on the march to seven wins. 

Washington Win Total 2024

• Current Washington Win Total: 6.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)

Washington’s explosion to the 2023 national title game was an incredible story. Fans should prepare for a major reversion in 2024, though, as Washington loses pretty much their entire team from last season. 

Jedd Fisch comes over from former conference foe Arizona, and Will Rogers is a Mississippi State import. Most of the two-deep is untested, and Washington will have an immensely difficult time winning any games after September.

I know the Huskies won 14 games last year, but I was surprised to see this number all the way up at 6.5. Much like Colorado last year, Washington should grab a couple of early-season wins before the schedule utterly beats it down. This is one of the best under bets available in this summer’s college football futures market. 

South Carolina Win Total 2024

• Current South Carolina Win Total: 5.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)

South Carolina’s schedule includes a lot of difficult games: LSU, Ole Miss, at Alabama, at Oklahoma, Missouri, and at Clemson, just to name a few. Somebody has to lose games in this conference, and it seems like the Gamecocks are going to be on the wrong end of some games this year.

But South Carolina also has some walkovers, too – Old Dominion, Akron, and Wofford should all be automatic wins. 

The season could swing on the final three games: at Kentucky, Texas A&M, and at Vanderbilt. 

With Shane Beamer and 15 returning starters, I actually think South Carolina has a good chance to score an upset from the first group of games and hold ground against the third group. It’s not my favorite bet of the season or anything, but I’ll take South Carolina to squeak out bowl eligibility at six wins.

Indiana Win Total 2024

• Current Indiana Win Total: 5.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)

Looking for a hidden gem in a mega-conference? This might be it. Indiana bagged Curt Cignetti from JMU with a massive contract, and the Hoosiers are bringing in a ton of talent via the transfer portal. That includes about half of JMU’s starting defense from last year, which ranked at one of the best units in FBS.

Indiana only needs six wins to hit the over, and games against FIU, FCS Western Illinois, and Charlotte should offer a high floor. There are several winnable conference games, including UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Washington, and Purdue. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Indiana jumped up and got Nebraska or Michigan. 

Indiana dodges Penn State, Oregon, Iowa, and USC – all of whom are expected to be top-half teams in this year’s Big Ten. If Indiana really has turned it around, there’s a chance for really shocking outcome like nine wins. I’ll be looking for alt win totals to play in addition to over 5.5. 

UCLA Win Total 2024

• Current UCLA Win Total: 4.5 (Over -135 / Under +115)

The second-most popular college team in a city obsessed with professional sports has a schedule that includes LSU, Oregon, Penn State, USC, Indiana, at Rutgers, and at Nebraska, among others. 

This seems like a lot for a first-time head coach and a mediocre roster. UCLA could be a team that finishes slightly below average, but it could also be a team that is totally devastated by the end of the season. I think a one or two-win season is distinctly possible.