Indiana vs UCLA Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

BetMGM Betting Sep 12, 2024, 11:24 AM

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UCLA running back TJ Harden (25) runs during an NCAA college football game against Stanford, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Stanford, Calif. (AP Photo/Scot Tucker)

(AP Photo/Scot Tucker)

Indiana is a -3 point favorite vs. UCLA
Indiana vs. UCLA Total(Over/Under): 46.5 points
TV Channel: NBC | PEAC

The Indiana Hoosiers (2-0) visit Rose Bowl to take on the UCLA Bruins (1-0) on Sep. 14 in Pasadena, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Indiana is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Indiana vs. UCLA Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Indiana vs. UCLA Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Indiana	-3 -110	46.5 -115	-155
UCLA	+3 -110	46.5 -105	+130

Indiana vs UCLA Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UCLA will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Indiana and UCLA, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Indiana vs UCLA Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCLA will cover the spread with 59.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Indiana Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Indiana has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 away games (+6.50 Units / 162% ROI)

Indiana has hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Indiana have covered the 1H Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 88% ROI)

Indiana has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 26% ROI)

Indiana have covered the Spread in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)

UCLA Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UCLA has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.95 Units / 56% ROI)

UCLA has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)

UCLA has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Indiana players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Indiana Player Prop Bets Today

Tayven Jackson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Tayven Jackson has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 58% ROI)

Donaven McCulley has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UCLA players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UCLA Player Prop Best Bets Today

Logan Loya has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)

J. Michael Sturdivant has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)

Ethan Garbers has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

TJ Harden has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Ethan Garbers has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.65 Units / 27% ROI)

Indiana Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Indiana is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI).

Indiana is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 3.95% ROI
Indiana is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI
Indiana is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.44% ROI

UCLA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCLA is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

UCLA is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 18.69% ROI
UCLA is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
UCLA is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI

Indiana: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

Indiana is winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .425

Indiana is winless (0-7) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .508

Indiana is winless (0-9) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .406

Indiana is winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .431

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. Indiana

UCLA is winless (0-4) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .411

UCLA is winless (0-3) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .374

UCLA is winless (0-4) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .409

UCLA is winless (0-5) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .454

Matchup Notes for Indiana vs. UCLA

UCLA has gained 272 yards on 19 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — 30th-best among FBS skill players. Indiana’s defense has allowed just 7.2 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA has gained 272 yards on 19 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — 30th-best among FBS skill players. Indiana’s defense has allowed just 7.2 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big Ten defenses.

UCLA’s WRs has gained 194 yards on 9 receptions (21.6 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Indiana’s defense has allowed just 7.2 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Indiana has gained 558 yards on 34 receptions (16.4 YPR) this season — 15th-best among FBS skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed just 9.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Indiana’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 17.4% of 46 attempts this season — T-11th-best among FBS offenses. UCLA’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 2.4% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Indiana has gained 558 yards on 34 receptions (16.4 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed just 9.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Indiana Offensive Stats & Trends

Indiana Skill Players have averaged 37.5 yards per reception (75 yards/2 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.2

Indiana Skill Players have averaged 37.5 yards per reception (75 yards/2 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1

UCLA Offensive Stats & Trends

UCLA TEs have averaged 17.9 yards per reception (484 yards/27 catches) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7

UCLA TEs have averaged 19.8 yards per reception (277 yards/14 catches) with 7-10 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.4

UCLA TEs have averaged 17.9 yards per reception (484 yards/27 catches) since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.0

UCLA TEs have averaged 20.0 yards per reception (80 yards/4 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.8

UCLA TEs have averaged 20.0 yards per reception (80 yards/4 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.5

Indiana Hoosiers Defensive Stats & Trends

Indiana has allowed just 7.2 yards per completion (238 yards/33 completions) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 9.8

Indiana has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (4 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Indiana has sacked opponents 10 times this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Indiana has averaged 5.0 sacks per game this season– T-best in the Big Ten; Average: 2.6

Indiana has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (4 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 62%

UCLA Bruins Defensive Stats & Trends

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 19 of 58 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 16%.

UCLA has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 58 carries (14.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

UCLA has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 424 carries (84.8 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 24.6

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 107 of 424 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 16%.

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 19 of 58 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.