- Illinois is a -3 point favorite vs. Michigan State
- Michigan State vs. Illinois Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
The Michigan State Spartans (4-5) visit Memorial Stadium to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (6-3) on Nov. 16 in Champaign, IL. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30pm EST.
Illinois is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Michigan State vs. Illinois Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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Michigan State vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Michigan State | +3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +125 |
| Illinois | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -150 |
Michigan State vs Illinois Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Illinois will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan State and Illinois, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Michigan State vs Illinois Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 53.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Michigan State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 57% ROI)
- Michigan State have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+3.05 Units / 61% ROI)
Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.10 Units / 71% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.30 Units / 2% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.90 Units / 2% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.70 Units / 22% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Michigan State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Michigan State Player Prop Bets Today
- Nick Marsh has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Montorie Foster Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Illinois players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Illinois Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Tanner Arkin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaden Feagin has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Kaden Feagin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Pat Bryant has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan State is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / -15.23% ROI).
- Michigan State is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 7.2% ROI
- Michigan State is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
- Michigan State is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Illinois is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.75 Units / 17.77% ROI).
- Illinois is 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.4 Units / 4.78% ROI
- Illinois is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
- Illinois is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI
Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois
Michigan State is 1-9 (.100) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .503
Michigan State is 2-11 (.154) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .491
Michigan State is 1-9 (.100) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: .472
Michigan State is undefeated (7-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .752
Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State
Illinois is 10-4 (.714) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .608
Illinois is 11-1 (.917) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .752
Illinois is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .699
Illinois is 6-2 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .587
Matchup Notes for Michigan State vs. Illinois
Illinois’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 16.4 receptions per game this season — 4th-best among Big Ten defenses.
Illinois’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 16.4 receptions per game this season — 25th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 2.5 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State’s WRs has gained 1,458 yards on 103 receptions (14.2 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 14.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan State has gained 2,040 yards on 160 receptions (12.8 YPR) this season — T-4th-best among Big Ten skill players. Illinois’s defense has allowed 14.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan State’s WRs has gained 1,458 yards on 103 receptions (14.2 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 11.7 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State TEs have no touchdowns on 39 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.1
Michigan State TEs have no touchdowns on 39 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.7
Michigan State’s WRs has gained 1,458 yards on 103 receptions (14.2 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 14.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan State RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 57 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 22.6
Michigan State WRs have averaged 16.0 yards per reception (864 yards/54 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.8
Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends
Illinois’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 16.4 receptions per game this season — 4th-best among Big Ten defenses.
Illinois’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 16.4 receptions per game this season — 25th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 2.5 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s TEs have just 15.6 receiving yards per game this season — worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 194.8 receiving yards per game this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois TEs have averaged just 1.8 receptions per game (16/9) this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 4.0
Michigan State Spartans Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State has allowed 9 TD passes in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most in the Big Ten
Michigan State has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– T-most in FBS
Michigan State has allowed 9 TD passes in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan State has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan State has allowed 5 TD passes in close and late situations this season– most in the Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends
Illinois has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 18 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.
Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 42 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
Illinois has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 18 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.
Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 42 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 29 of 306 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
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