Most Overrated College Football Teams

Miami head coach Mario Cristobal talks with the media at the team's NCAA college football media day, Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022, in Coral Gables, Fla. Cristobal isn't the only coach who came home to Miami. The Hurricanes have no shortage of assistants and analysts with deep Miami ties who signed on to join Cristobal's first staff at his alma mater.
(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

College football betting is particularly susceptible to the swings and biases of media coverage and public opinion.

Unlike the NFL, which is set up to constantly drag teams up or down toward the mean, college football is designed as an unfair game. Some programs have eight-figure budgets and attract elite recruits; other programs languish in total obscurity for decades at a time.

Itโ€™s no surprise, then, that some programs are routinely underrated or overrated over the years.

Those reasons can differ from program to program โ€“ especially when dealing with overrated teams โ€“ but the top-level takeaway is always the same. Regardless of rationale, avoid overrated teams at all costs.

Here are some of the most overrated college football teams from the last decade, as evaluated by the NCAA football point spread market. For the most part, these teams all have ROI of -15% or worse in spread markets dating back to 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned PASPA.

Most Overrated College Football Teams

TeamATS Record
New Mexico19-44-1
Stanford23-39-2
UMass23-37-1
Akron24-38-1
UL Monroe25-42
Michigan State26-36-3
Florida International26-35-1
Colorado State26-35
Washington27-36-1
Nebraska27-35-3
Maryland27-35
Georgia Tech28-39
USC28-38-1
Louisiana Tech28-38
Vanderbilt28-38
Wisconsin28-37-1
Marshall28-37
Miami (FL)29-38

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.