College football betting is particularly susceptible to the swings and biases of media coverage and public opinion.
Unlike the NFL, which is set up to constantly drag teams up or down toward the mean, college football is designed as an unfair game. Some programs have eight-figure budgets and attract elite recruits; other programs languish in total obscurity for decades at a time.
It’s no surprise, then, that some programs are routinely underrated or overrated over the years.
Those reasons can differ from program to program – especially when dealing with overrated teams – but the top-level takeaway is always the same. Regardless of rationale, avoid overrated teams at all costs.
Here are some of the most overrated college football teams from the last decade, as evaluated by the NCAA football point spread market. For the most part, these teams all have ROI of -15% or worse in spread markets dating back to 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned PASPA.
Most Overrated College Football Teams
| Team | ATS Record |
|---|---|
| New Mexico | 19-44-1 |
| Stanford | 23-39-2 |
| UMass | 23-37-1 |
| Akron | 24-38-1 |
| UL Monroe | 25-42 |
| Michigan State | 26-36-3 |
| Florida International | 26-35-1 |
| Colorado State | 26-35 |
| Washington | 27-36-1 |
| Nebraska | 27-35-3 |
| Maryland | 27-35 |
| Georgia Tech | 28-39 |
| USC | 28-38-1 |
| Louisiana Tech | 28-38 |
| Vanderbilt | 28-38 |
| Wisconsin | 28-37-1 |
| Marshall | 28-37 |
| Miami (FL) | 29-38 |
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