College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 11

There are only a few weeks left in the regular season, and the column bets are once again heating up.

Today – as I do every Wednesday throughout the college football regular season – I’ve put together a handful of my favorite college football betting predictions for you to consider this weekend. 

College Football Best Bets: Week 11 Predictions

After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my best plays from the wider canon of college football odds. 

I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each college football bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone. 

If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. 

Michigan at Penn State Spread Prediction

This is actually a pretty simple handicap for me. Every year, Penn State achieves a lofty ranking and is seemingly competing for the Big Ten championship and subsequent CFP berth.

But Penn State’s record against Michigan & Ohio State – four wins, 15 losses dating back to 2014 – is a major clue for bettors. The Nittany Lions just aren’t quite on that top level in the Big Ten East. The truth hurts. 

Last time Michigan came to Happy Valley, Penn State kept it close, losing 21-17. Perhaps not coincidentally, the current point spread is 4.5. 

But Michigan’s defense is much better now than it was then, with the Wolverines bludgeoning opponents behind its top-flight defense, which ranks No. 2 in EPA allowed.

If I’m getting involved in this game, it’s Michigan. Don’t make the same mistake that many bettors did with Penn State when it went to Columbus last month. 

Lean: Michigan -4.5

Old Dominion at Liberty Spread Prediction

As a Virginia resident who watches a lot of Sun Belt football, I keyed in on this one pretty fast. Old Dominion has an affinity for one-score games, and its wide-open offense keeps the backdoor open late into the fourth quarter.

Liberty might be undefeated, but its strength of schedule is so weak that it’s barely worth mentioning. Per Jeff Sagarin’s rankings, it’s played only one top-100 opponent all season.

That’s a recipe for being unwatched and overvalued, which Liberty now is. This is far too many points for ODU, which I believe is live to win the game. 

Best Bet: ODU +13.5; ODU +400

Oklahoma State at UCF Spread Prediction

I just do not understand this point spread at all. Oklahoma State is playing like a top-15 team right now, while UCF is in 13th place in the standings. Its only win came last week, by two points, against the team currently in 14th place.

UCF has looked disappointing this year partly because quarterback John Rhys Plumlee missed time early in the season. But he’s healthy now, and the team still looks wanting.

On the heels of a huge, draining, emotional win over departing rival Oklahoma, I can understand that this might look like a classic letdown spot. But Oklahoma State is playing so, so well right now that I couldn’t possibly consider UCF at such a paltry price. This is one of those strange games where the expected square position is also the sensible, easy bet.

Best Bet: Oklahoma State -2.5

West Virginia at Oklahoma Spread Prediction

This is probably my favorite bet of the week. Oklahoma has lost two straight and needs to dust itself off and get back to form before it’s completely out of the conference title race. 

West Virginia, on the other hand, is a surprising 6-3 team that few (aside from me) expected anything from. They were picked dead last in the preseason. 

We finally found someone who is high on #WVU football this season.

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— Ten12 Podcast Network (@Ten12Network) August 25, 2023

As a WVU fan myself, I feel comfortable saying what many others may not: This WVU team isn’t that good. West Virginia has a great run game and a reasonably effective quarterback. In a top-heavy conference, that alone is good for seven or eight wins, which explains the Mountaineers’ success.

But winning at Oklahoma is quite a bit different than beating UCF, BYU, or Texas Tech with its starting quarterback knocked out. This is likely the toughest test of the season, and it comes against a program that has absolutely owned WVU since the season started. 

Obviously, the fan in me hopes I’m wrong about all this, but not all winning teams are created equal. And when this particular West Virginia team goes to Norman, I am expecting a total smackdown. This is a contrarian favorite, which is one of my favorite types of bets.

Best Bet: Oklahoma -12.5

Texas Tech at Kansas Spread Prediction

This is a lot of Big 12, but what can I say? I feel very dialed in on the Big 12 spreads right now.

Joey McGuire has been a nice hire for Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders just aren’t very good away from Lubbock. Since the beginning of the 2022 season, Texas Tech is 2-7 straight up in road games. Six of the seven losses came by a margin of between seven and 14 points.

We kind of know what Texas Tech is. They’re a really scrappy home dog that can’t beat Big 12 teams away from West Texas. I have no reason to think they will go on the road and be this competitive with one of the conference’s four best teams. 

Best Bet: Kansas -3.5

Arizona State at UCLA Spread Prediction

The Pac-12 is the deepest, best conference in college football this year, which has inevitably created a couple of absolute doormats at the bottom of the standings. 

Arizona State is one of those disaffected teams. Things bottomed out last week when the Sun Devils lost at Utah, 55-3. Ouch.

I expect another similar outing this week in Pasadena, when the Bruins – fresh off a tough loss to ascendant Arizona – will run the ball right down Arizona State’s throat. 

This is a big number, but it’s this big for a reason. And much like the Oklahoma-WVU game, public bettors don’t seem to understand that and are flocking to the dog position. This is a nice contrarian favorite spot to back UCLA.

Best Bet: UCLA -17

Best College Football Parlay This Week

One college football parlay to consider for Week 11 is:

• Louisiana -400
• Alabama -450
• UCLA -900
• Oregon -800

That’s a four-leg parlay for -110. Make sure to check out my 2Kparlay, too!

College Football Picks Against the Spread

If you like this sort of content, I’d recommend checking out my podcast, The Lion’s Edge, which I host on behalf of our content team here at BetMGM.

Every week, I highlight college football predictions, odds, and betting opportunities that I think are ripe for advantage bettors, like me. 

I also bring on expert guests from both inside and outside of the sportsbook, so you can learn a little bit more about key topics in online sports betting.

Check it out and subscribe on the podcast player of your choice. You can also listen to some of the most recent episodes in the podcast player below.