College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 7

min read
Miami (Ohio) quarterback Brett Gabbert (5) runs during an NCAA college football game against Cincinnati, Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023, in Cincinnati.
(AP Photo/Jeff Dean)
Chase Kiddy @chaseakiddy Oct 13, 2023, 10:42 AM
  • College Football Week 7 is approaching, providing a new slate of good bets.
  • Best bets for LSU-Auburn, Illinois-Maryland, Louisville-Pitt, and more.

Week 7 is here, and the Pac-12 schedule finally has some of its top contenders lining up opposite one another. Farther east, Heisman favorites will duel in South Bend and Chapel Hill.

It’s just another week of college football odds and college football betting.

Today – as I do every Wednesday throughout the college football regular season – I’ve put together a handful of my favorite college football betting predictions for you to consider this weekend. 

College Football Best Bets: Week 7 Predictions

After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my best plays from the wider canon of college football odds. 

I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each college football bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone. 

If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. 

Louisville at Pittsburgh Spread Prediction

Pittsburgh’s dreadful offense can’t be saved by just a quarterback change, so I’m predicting Louisville wins and covers its 7.5-point spread on the road this weekend. 

The Panthers are making a change at quarterback, and that’s a good idea. Pittsburgh’s Phil Jurkovec had posted a QBR of 38.2, which was tied with UTEP’s Gavin Hardison for 110th in FBS. It’s been rough. 

Still, it’s not fair to lay all the blame at Jurkovec’s feet. The offense that Pittsburgh is running this year is outdated and stale, and it’s compounded by the fact that Pitt no longer has a wealth of talent on its roster.

This number tells me the market is concerned about a letdown performance from Louisville after a loss to Notre Dame. But Louisville’s excellent defensive line should completely overwhelm Pittsburgh’s antiquated offense, regardless of who is throwing the passes.

Even if Louisville plays a C-game, I still think the Cardinals are more than a touchdown better than this Pittsburgh team.

Best Bet: Louisville -7.5

Illinois at Maryland Spread Prediction

Maryland has a sharp offense and will be looking to get back on the winning track after last week’s loss in Columbus. I’m predicting the Terps win and cover a 14-point spread against woeful Illinois.

Last week’s box score will say that Ohio State covered its nearly-three-touchdown spread against Maryland, and that’s true. But the Terps played an impressive opening 30 or 40 minutes and showed that they’re a quality team in a conference with giants at the top.

Prior to playing Ohio State, Maryland had beaten up on its lesser-than opponents, winning each game by at least 18 points. 

Since Illinois looks like one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this year and has yet to cover a point spread this season, I like Maryland to stay ahead of market expectations this week. 

Best Bet: Maryland -14

Miami (OH) at Western Michigan

My theory on this game is that the market is overvaluing the talent gap between these two teams because of differences in records. Therefore, I am predicting underdog Western Michigan covers its 8.5-point spread as a home dog against Miami. 

Miami is 5-1 and ascending toward contender status in the MAC, which is why the Hurricanes are north of a touchdown on the road. But let’s look at who the RedHawks have actually beaten, shall we? 

Set aside the Cincinnati win – we’ll come to that in a second – and Miami has wins over Kent State, Bowling Green, Delaware State, and UMass. Those teams check into Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings at 176, 123, 254, and 186, respectively.

Aside from the Cincinnati win, this team has beaten utterly no one. And while I’m never going to tell anyone not to enjoy a rivalry win, this was, indeed, a coin-flip overtime rivalry win that happened to go Miami’s way in the extra frame. 

Western Michigan is 2-4, but again, let’s look at the schedule. The losses are all pretty understandable: Syracuse, Iowa, Mississippi State, and MAC favorite Toledo. 

The records make this game look like it’s a mismatch. In reality, this is likely a competitive game, which makes the home team catching more than a touchdown awfully valuable.

Best Bet: Western Michigan +8.5

UMass at Penn State Total Prediction

Because of expected rain in the area and a totally overmatched UMass offense, I am predicting that the total in the UMass-Penn State game will go under the posted total of 56.5.

This is a distinctly boring and unsexy wager to make, but the reality is that Penn State wants to get out of this game undefeated and healthy ahead of next week’s showdown with Ohio State. 

I expect a healthy dose of defense and run game by the time we’re midway through the second quarter, and any potential rain in the forecast can only help the cause. 

Best Bet: UMass/Penn State Under 56.5

Auburn at LSU Total Prediction

I believe that LSU will continue to play in high-scoring games, so I am predicting that this Auburn-LSU game will sail over the posted total yet again.

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels can score on anyone, and just about anyone seems to be capable of scoring on the LSU defense. That’s a strong recipe for an over, and the Tigers are indeed 6-0 to the over so far this season.

Until the LSU defense improves, or the sportsbook starts hanging a number that makes me reconsider these overs, I’m going to keep betting them every week. 

Best Bet: Auburn/LSU Over 60.5

Best College Football Parlay This Week

One college football parlay to consider for Week 7 is:

  • Texas State -800
  • Florida State -900
  • Colorado -450
  • Alabama -1100
  • Utah -600

This five-leg favorites parlay is currently priced at -106. It’s kind of a lousy week for moneyline parlays because of how many teams are on bye, but that’s one option. 

Make sure to check out my 2Kparlay later this week. 

College Football Picks Against the Spread

If you like this sort of content, I’d recommend checking out my podcast, The Lion’s Edge, which I host on behalf of our content team here at BetMGM.

Every week, I highlight college football predictions, odds, and betting opportunities that I think are ripe for advantage bettors, like me. 

I also bring on expert guests from both inside and outside of the sportsbook, so you can learn a little bit more about key topics in online sports betting.

Check it out and subscribe on the podcast player of your choice. You can also listen to some of the most recent episodes in the podcast player below.

Build a College Football Parlay at BetMGM

Parlays are unique opportunities to use your sports and betting knowledge to increase the entertainment and potential payouts throughout the college football season.

With hundreds of games each season, the football betting combinations are endless. Whether you want a parlay of SEC moneyline favorites, short Big Ten underdogs, or prop bets, there’s something for everyone.

Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome bonus — to start betting. And don’t forget to check updated sportsbook bonuses and promos each day of the year.

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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.