- College Football Week 7 is approaching, providing a new slate of good bets.
- Best bets for LSU-Auburn, Illinois-Maryland, Louisville-Pitt, and more.
Week 7 is here, and the Pac-12 schedule finally has some of its top contenders lining up opposite one another. Farther east, Heisman favorites will duel in South Bend and Chapel Hill.
Itโs just another week of college football odds and college football betting.
Today โ as I do every Wednesday throughout the college football regular season โ Iโve put together a handful of my favorite college football betting predictions for you to consider this weekend.ย
College Football Best Bets: Week 7 Predictions
After Iโve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my best plays from the wider canon of college football odds.ย
Iโll provide a short explanation of why I like each college football bet, so you donโt have to go on faith alone.ย
If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lionโs Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM.ย
Louisville at Pittsburgh Spread Prediction
Pittsburghโs dreadful offense canโt be saved by just a quarterback change, so Iโm predicting Louisville wins and covers its 7.5-point spread on the road this weekend.ย
The Panthers are making a change at quarterback, and thatโs a good idea. Pittsburghโs Phil Jurkovec had posted a QBR of 38.2, which was tied with UTEPโs Gavin Hardison for 110th in FBS. Itโs been rough.ย
Still, itโs not fair to lay all the blame at Jurkovecโs feet. The offense that Pittsburgh is running this year is outdated and stale, and itโs compounded by the fact that Pitt no longer has a wealth of talent on its roster.
This number tells me the market is concerned about a letdown performance from Louisville after a loss to Notre Dame. But Louisvilleโs excellent defensive line should completely overwhelm Pittsburghโs antiquated offense, regardless of who is throwing the passes.
Even if Louisville plays a C-game, I still think the Cardinals are more than a touchdown better than this Pittsburgh team.
Best Bet: Louisville -7.5
Illinois at Maryland Spread Prediction
Maryland has a sharp offense and will be looking to get back on the winning track after last weekโs loss in Columbus. Iโm predicting the Terps win and cover a 14-point spread against woeful Illinois.
Last weekโs box score will say that Ohio State covered its nearly-three-touchdown spread against Maryland, and thatโs true. But the Terps played an impressive opening 30 or 40 minutes and showed that theyโre a quality team in a conference with giants at the top.
Prior to playing Ohio State, Maryland had beaten up on its lesser-than opponents, winning each game by at least 18 points.ย
Since Illinois looks like one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this year and has yet to cover a point spread this season, I like Maryland to stay ahead of market expectations this week.ย
Best Bet: Maryland -14
Miami (OH) at Western Michigan
My theory on this game is that the market is overvaluing the talent gap between these two teams because of differences in records. Therefore, I am predicting underdog Western Michigan covers its 8.5-point spread as a home dog against Miami.ย
Miami is 5-1 and ascending toward contender status in the MAC, which is why the Hurricanes are north of a touchdown on the road. But letโs look at who the RedHawks have actually beaten, shall we?ย
Set aside the Cincinnati win โ weโll come to that in a second โ and Miami has wins over Kent State, Bowling Green, Delaware State, and UMass. Those teams check into Jeff Sagarinโs computer rankings at 176, 123, 254, and 186, respectively.
Aside from the Cincinnati win, this team has beaten utterly no one. And while Iโm never going to tell anyone not to enjoy a rivalry win, this was, indeed, a coin-flip overtime rivalry win that happened to go Miamiโs way in the extra frame.ย
Western Michigan is 2-4, but again, letโs look at the schedule. The losses are all pretty understandable: Syracuse, Iowa, Mississippi State, and MAC favorite Toledo.ย
The records make this game look like itโs a mismatch. In reality, this is likely a competitive game, which makes the home team catching more than a touchdown awfully valuable.
Best Bet: Western Michigan +8.5
UMass at Penn State Total Prediction
Because of expected rain in the area and a totally overmatched UMass offense, I am predicting that the total in the UMass-Penn State game will go under the posted total of 56.5.
This is a distinctly boring and unsexy wager to make, but the reality is that Penn State wants to get out of this game undefeated and healthy ahead of next weekโs showdown with Ohio State.ย
I expect a healthy dose of defense and run game by the time weโre midway through the second quarter, and any potential rain in the forecast can only help the cause.ย
Best Bet: UMass/Penn State Under 56.5
Auburn at LSU Total Prediction
I believe that LSU will continue to play in high-scoring games, so I am predicting that this Auburn-LSU game will sail over the posted total yet again.
LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels can score on anyone, and just about anyone seems to be capable of scoring on the LSU defense. Thatโs a strong recipe for an over, and the Tigers are indeed 6-0 to the over so far this season.
Until the LSU defense improves, or the sportsbook starts hanging a number that makes me reconsider these overs, Iโm going to keep betting them every week.ย
Best Bet: Auburn/LSU Over 60.5
Best College Football Parlay This Week
One college football parlay to consider for Week 7 is:
- Texas State -800
- Florida State -900
- Colorado -450
- Alabama -1100
- Utah -600
This five-leg favorites parlay is currently priced at -106. Itโs kind of a lousy week for moneyline parlays because of how many teams are on bye, but thatโs one option.ย
Make sure to check out my 2Kparlay later this week.ย
College Football Picks Against the Spread
If you like this sort of content, Iโd recommend checking out my podcast, The Lionโs Edge, which I host on behalf of our content team here at BetMGM.
Every week, I highlight college football predictions, odds, and betting opportunities that I think are ripe for advantage bettors, like me.ย
I also bring on expert guests from both inside and outside of the sportsbook, so you can learn a little bit more about key topics in online sports betting.
Check it out and subscribe on the podcast player of your choice. You can also listen to some of the most recent episodes in the podcast player below.
Build a College Football Parlay at BetMGM
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With hundreds of games each season, the football betting combinations are endless. Whether you want a parlay of SEC moneyline favorites, short Big Ten underdogs, or prop bets, there’s something for everyone.
Sign in to your account today โ or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome bonus โ to start betting. And donโt forget to check updated sportsbook bonuses and promos each day of the year.