Nebraska vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 13, 2024, 4:31 PM

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Southern California head coach Lincoln Riley watches during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Utah, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

(AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

USC is a -8.5 point favorite vs. Nebraska
Nebraska vs. USC Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-4) visit United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to take on the USC Trojans (4-5) on Nov. 16 in Los Angeles, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.

USC is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-115).

The Nebraska vs. USC Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Nebraska vs. USC Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Nebraska	+8.5 -105	50.5 -110	+270
USC	-8.5 -115	50.5 -110	-350

Nebraska vs USC Prediction:

The winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 75.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Nebraska and USC, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Nebraska vs USC Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts USC will cover the spread with 72.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Nebraska Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Nebraska has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.65 Units / 22% ROI)
Nebraska has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.85 Units / 39% ROI)
Nebraska have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.55 Units / 13% ROI)
Nebraska has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Nebraska have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)

USC Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

USC have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
USC has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.90 Units / 28% ROI)
USC have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
USC has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
USC have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Nebraska players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nebraska Player Prop Bets Today

Rahmir Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Emmett Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Thomas Fidone II has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Dylan Raiola has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.95 Units / 38% ROI)
Rahmir Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for USC players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best USC Player Prop Best Bets Today

Makai Lemon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Zachariah Branch has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kyron Hudson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ja’Kobi Lane has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Miller Moss has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 61% ROI)

Nebraska Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nebraska is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.14% ROI).

Nebraska is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -8.08% ROI
Nebraska is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
Nebraska is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 6.03% ROI).

USC is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -4.28% ROI
USC is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
USC is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Nebraska: Keys to the Game vs. USC

Nebraska is winless (0-6) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .395

Nebraska is winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .285

Nebraska is 2-7 (.222) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .491

Nebraska is winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .301

USC: Keys to the Game vs. Nebraska

USC is 4-8 (.308) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .528

USC is 4-8 (.308) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .505

USC was 2-5 (.250) when not forcing a fumble in the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

Matchup Notes for Nebraska vs. USC

USC’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.6% of 374 attempts this season — T-33rd-worst among FBS offenses. Nebraska’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.8% of attempts this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

USC’s TEs has gained 242 yards on 28 receptions (just 8.6 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Nebraska’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

USC’s WRs have 229.8 receiving yards per game this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten WRs. Nebraska’s defense has allowed just 136.9 receiving yards per game to WRs this season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Nebraska has gained 2,031 yards on 185 receptions (just 11.0 YPR) this season — T-23rd-worst among FBS skill players. USC’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — T-17th-best among FBS defenses.

Nebraska’s RBs has averaged 5.7 targets per game this season — T-23rd-highest among FBS RBs. USC’s defense has allowed 4.3 receptions per game to RBs this season — T-5th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nebraska’s RBs has 39 receptions in 9 games (4.3 per game) this season — T-22nd-best among FBS RBs. USC’s defense has allowed 22.7 receptions per game this season — 5th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nebraska Offensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska TEs have no touchdowns on 30 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.7

Nebraska TEs have averaged just -1.0 yards per reception (-2 yards/2 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 8.9

Nebraska QBs have fumbled 11 times in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

USC TEs have averaged just 2.5 yards per reception (5 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1

USC TEs have no touchdowns on 28 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.7

USC TEs have averaged just 2.5 yards per reception (5 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.4

Nebraska Cornhuskers Defensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska has allowed 14 rushing TDs on 657 carries (46.9 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 23.8

Nebraska has no interceptions and 11 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.8

Nebraska has no interceptions and 18 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.4

Nebraska has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 281 carries (56.2 Carries Per TD) this season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 23.4

Nebraska has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 58 of 657 carries (9%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 13%

USC Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

USC has allowed 2.8 touchdowns per interception (39 TDs allowed, and 14 INT) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.5

USC has intercepted 14 of 719 attempts (51.4 pass attempts per int.) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 35.2

USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 66% (65 completions/98 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 57%

USC has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (13/303) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

USC allowed 4.4 touchdowns per interception (31 TDs allowed, and 7 INT) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.7