Syracuse vs. UNLV: Prediction, Pick, Odds Preview

By Week 6, most of the college football odds market has moved onto conference play. But as Friday night’s television lineup shows, that’s not always the case.

Syracuse is taking a break from ACC play to play its first game Pacific Time since 2011. The travel should be good practice for the Orange, who will return to the West Coast in November for a road game against Cal.

For UNLV, a home game against the Orange offers the chance for its third P4 win of the season. With the Rebels now in the AP Top 25 and eyeing a potential College Football Playoff berth, another chance for a high-profile win is a welcome opportunity.

Syracuse vs. UNLV Odds

• Point Spread: UNLV -6.5
• Moneyline: UNLV -225  |  Syracuse +180
• Over/Under: 59.5

Syracuse vs. UNLV Preview

It’s impossible to handicap this game without an analysis of UNLV’s current situation. 

As anyone following NCAA football odds can probably tell you, one of the big news stories in the sport right now is the sudden departure of UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka. While details vary depending on which camp is leaking the information, the general consensus seems to be that Sluka and UNLV disagree about his NIL compensation.

Sluka announced he was entering the transfer portal last week and would play no more games this season to preserve his redshirt status. The market for UNLV football odds took a major dip following his announcement. At one point last week, UNLV was priced at pk at home against Fresno State.

UNLV ultimately covered after closing as a 2.5-point favorite, blasting the Bulldogs 59-14. The defense picked off Fresno quarterbacks four times and allowed only 346 yards of offense – much of it coming in garbage time in the second half. UNLV led 21-0 at halftime and 31-0 with 6 minutes, 52 seconds left in the third quarter.

Through four weeks, Sluka’s total QBR rated as one of the best quarterbacks in college football. Still, his raw stats weren’t great, and he wasn’t an efficient passer. 

UNLV has now handed the ball to Hajj-Malik Williams, who was 13-for-16 for 182 yards and three touchdowns. Not bad, considering the Fresno game script didn’t call for much passing after halftime.

The handicap for Friday’s game depends entirely on how you feel about UNLV’s quarterback change, their ranked status, and their relatively high market position. 

Syracuse vs. UNLV Prediction

I am predicting a Syracuse +6.5 cover on Friday night.

UNLV is clearly a good team worthy of College Football Playoff discussion. However, this game is an obvious natural sell-high spot, coming off a 45-point blowout of a decent conference opponent. The line has already moved down from UNLV -3 to UNLV -6.5.

My suspicion is that UNLV rearranged its offense to play to Williams’ strengths, which were different from Sluka’s. Fresno entered the game with a bad game plan, and the result was a total rout. 

Now that Syracuse has seen Williams play and can prepare for the new offense appropriately, I am expecting a more competitive game. That’s to say nothing of Syracuse’s quality roster with 18 returning starters from 2023, or the fact that Syracuse has covered four straight nonconference road games. 

Syracuse vs. UNLV Pick: Syracuse +6.5