Texas vs Oklahoma Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 11, 2024, 1:11 PM

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Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables watches from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Cincinnati, Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Aaron Doster)

(AP Photo/Aaron Doster)

The Texas is a -14.5 point favorite vs. Oklahoma
The Texas vs. Oklahoma Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Texas Longhorns (5-0) visit Cotton Bowl to take on the Oklahoma Sooners (4-1) on Oct. 12 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Texas is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).

The Texas vs. Oklahoma Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Texas vs. Oklahoma Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texas	-14.5 -110	49.5 -115	-650
Oklahoma	+14.5 -110	49.5 -105	+450

Texas vs Oklahoma Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 84.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas and Oklahoma, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Texas vs Oklahoma Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Oklahoma will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Texas has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.40 Units / 12% ROI)
Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 18% ROI)
Texas have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 34% ROI)
Texas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.05 Units / 57% ROI)

Oklahoma Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oklahoma has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.80 Units / 33% ROI)
Oklahoma have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas Player Prop Bets Today

Quinn Ewers has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.10 Units / 40% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oklahoma players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oklahoma Player Prop Best Bets Today

Gavin Sawchuk has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Nic Anderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jackson Arnold has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Jalil Farooq has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.55 Units / 20% ROI)
Jackson Arnold has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas is 4-0 against the spread this college football season (+4 Units / 71.43% ROI).

Texas is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 40.82% ROI
Texas is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 34.55% ROI
Texas is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -41.82% ROI

Oklahoma Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 16.36% ROI).

Oklahoma is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 4.22% ROI
Oklahoma is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -21.62% ROI
Oklahoma is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.95 Units / 17.43% ROI

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma

Texas is undefeated (15-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .682

Texas is undefeated (12-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .599

Texas is 9-2 (.818) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .440

Texas is 17-2 (.895) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .651

Oklahoma: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Oklahoma is undefeated (10-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .670

Oklahoma is 8-2 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: .440

Oklahoma is 11-3 (.786) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: .451

Oklahoma is 8-2 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .496

Matchup Notes for Texas vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma has averaged 12.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.8 RAC since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s WRs has 299 receptions in 18 games (16.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among SEC WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed 20.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma has averaged 12.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-5th-best among SEC skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.8 RAC since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s WRs has averaged 14.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among SEC WRs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 12.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC defenses.

Texas has averaged 13.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-15th-best among FBS skill players. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 12.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC defenses.

Texas’s WRs has averaged 14.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-20th-best among FBS WRs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 14.2 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas’s WRs has gained 1,195 yards on 77 receptions (15.5 YPR) this season — T-17th-best among FBS WRs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-worst among SEC defenses.

Texas has averaged 13.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-best among SEC skill players. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 12.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC defenses.

Oklahoma Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma has 394 receptions in 18 games (21.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among SEC skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed 20.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s QBs has thrown for 848 passing yards in 5 games (just 169.6 YPG) this season — 19th-worst among FBS teams. Texas’s defense has allowed just 121.6 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas has allowed one passing TD (135 pass attempts) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 23.6

Texas has allowed one passing TD (135 pass attempts) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 30.6

Texas has allowed just 7.7 yards per completion (606 yards/79 completions) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 11.3

Texas has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 80 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Texas has allowed one passing TD (135 pass attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 21.7

Oklahoma Sooners Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma has allowed one rushing TD on 17 carries in the Red Zone this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Oklahoma has allowed one rushing TD on 200 carries this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 31.5

Oklahoma has allowed one rushing TD on 200 carries this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 24.4

Oklahoma has allowed 9.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (505 yards / 56 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.3

Oklahoma has allowed one rushing TD on 200 carries this season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 34.7