Wake Forest vs NC State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 6

North Carolina State head coach Dave Doeren watched his team during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Louisville in Louisville, Ky., Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022.
(AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
  • The NC State is a -5.5 point favorite vs. Wake Forest
  • The Wake Forest vs. North Carolina State Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
  • TV Channel: CW

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-3) visit Carter-Finley Stadium to take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack (3-2) on Oct. 5 in Raleigh, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

NC State is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Wake Forest vs. North Carolina State Over/Under is 54.5 total points.

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Wake Forest vs. North Carolina State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Wake Forest+5.5 -11054.5 -110+170
North Carolina State -5.5 -11054.5 -110-210

Wake Forest vs North Carolina State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts North Carolina State will win this game with 65.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Wake Forest and NC State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Wake Forest vs North Carolina State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina State will cover the spread with 67.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Wake Forest have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.15 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Wake Forest has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+4.05 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Wake Forest has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Wake Forest has hit the Game Total Over in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Wake Forest has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.95 Units / 43% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+8.30 Units / 40% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • NC State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.00 Units / 7% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Wake Forest players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Wake Forest Player Prop Bets Today

  • Taylor Morin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Demond Claiborne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for North Carolina State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best North Carolina State Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Kevin Concepcion has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kevin Concepcion has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Wake Forest Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wake Forest is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -66.67% ROI).

  • Wake Forest is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -100% ROI
  • Wake Forest is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Wake Forest is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

North Carolina State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

NC State is 1-4 against the spread this college football season (-3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI).

  • North Carolina State is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • North Carolina State is 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
  • North Carolina State is 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI

Wake Forest: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina State

Wake Forest is 3-10 (.231) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .509

Wake Forest is 5-10 (.333) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .487

Wake Forest is 2-9 (.182) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .533

Wake Forest is 2-7 (.222) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .496

North Carolina State: Keys to the Game vs. Wake Forest

North Carolina State is 8-4 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .535

North Carolina State is 6-4 (.600) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .441

North Carolina State is 8-2 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .633

North Carolina State is winless (0-3) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .362

Matchup Notes for Wake Forest vs. North Carolina State

North Carolina State’s offense has thrown for 3,516 passing yards in 18 games (just 195.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS offenses. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed 245.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina State’s QBs has thrown for 3,499 passing yards in 18 games (just 194.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS teams. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed 245.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State’s offense has thrown for 3,516 passing yards in 18 games (just 195.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS offenses. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed 245.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Wake Forest’s WRs has 243 receptions in 16 games (15.2 per game) since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed just 11.4 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Deuce Alexander (WF) has been targeted 6 times in the Red Zone this season — T-10th-most of Qualified Power 5 Skill Players. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 7 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — 2nd-most among ACC defenses.

Deuce Alexander (WF) has been targeted 6 times in the Red Zone this season — T-10th-most of Qualified Power 5 Skill Players. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 7 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-2nd-most among P5 defenses.

Wake Forest Offensive Stats & Trends

Wake Forest RBs rushed for 4 TDs last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Wake Forest’s WRs has 243 receptions in 16 games (15.2 per game) since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed just 11.4 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Wake Forest WRs have averaged 19.5 receptions per game (78/4) this season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7

Wake Forest WRs had 4 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Wake Forest Skill Players had 5 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-most among Power Conference Teams

North Carolina State Offensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State’s offense has thrown for 3,516 passing yards in 18 games (just 195.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS offenses. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed 245.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.

North Carolina State TEs have averaged 24.8 yards per reception (124 yards/5 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.2

North Carolina State’s QBs has thrown for 3,499 passing yards in 18 games (just 194.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS teams. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed 245.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

North Carolina State TEs have averaged 24.8 yards per reception (124 yards/5 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.0

North Carolina State’s offense has thrown for 3,516 passing yards in 18 games (just 195.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-worst among FBS offenses. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed 245.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Defensive Stats & Trends

Wake Forest has allowed a Completion Pct of 72% (94 completions/131 attempts) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Wake Forest has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (3 completions/9 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 54%

Wake Forest has allowed first downs on 42% of pass attempts this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 30%

Wake Forest has tackled opponents for a loss on just 15 of 150 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 17%.

Wake Forest has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (3 completions/9 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

North Carolina State Wolfpack Defensive Stats & Trends

North Carolina State has allowed 7 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

North Carolina State has allowed 5.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (470 yards / 94 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7

North Carolina State has allowed 13 TDs in the Red Zone this season– T-4th-most among Power Conference Teams

North Carolina State has allowed 10 rushing TDs this season– T-3rd-most among Power Conference Teams

North Carolina State has allowed a Completion Pct of 71% (15 completions/21 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: 54%


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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.