- Manchester United is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Twente.
- Manchester United is 31-16 SU as a home favorite in the EPL since 2021.
- I predict Manchester United will win the first half against Twente.
To kick off their Europa League campaign, Manchester United hosts Eredivisie side FC Twente on Wednesday at Old Trafford.
The Red Devils have enjoyed a mixed start to the season. They’re 2-1-0 (W-D-L) as a favorite this season but are 0-2 SU as an underdog.
Twente, meanwhile, fell to the Europa League after failing to qualify for the Champions League. Across two legs vs. RB Salzburg, Twente finished 0-1-1 (W-D-L).
Here’s a look at the Europa League odds and my Manchester United vs. Twente prediction.
Manchester United vs. Twente, Europa League Betting Odds
- Manchester United Moneyline: -350
- Twente Moneyline: +800
- Draw Moneyline: +475
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-120), No (-120)
Manchester United vs. Twente Prediction: First Half Moneyline
My Manchester United vs. Twente Prediction is Manchester United to Win the First Half (-140).
For as inconsistent as United’s record is this season, they’ve excelled as a favorite.
In matches against Fulham, Southampton and Crystal Palace, they’re 2-1-0 (W-D-L) with a +4.1 expected goal differential and +5.1 post-shot xGDiff, per fbref.com.
They’re also dominating the opening 45 minutes in those games.
Although United has only a single first half win in those matches, they’ve dominated the underlying metrics.
United has a +2 non-penalty goal differential in those three halves compared to a +4 non-penalty post-shot xGDiff, suggesting positive regression could arrive.
That could come on Wednesday against Twente, who started very slowly against Salzburg in Champions League qualifying.
Across both legs, the Dutch side posted a -0.44 xGDiff per 45 minutes in the opening half along with a -1.07 post-shot xGDiff in both first halves.
Just in the trip to Salzburg, they lost the first half 1-0 with a 0.47-1.47 post-shot xGDiff loss, per fotmob.com.
United remains a superior side to Salzburg, so I could see this getting out of hand for Twente. Back the Red Devils to start strong at Old Trafford.
Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 21 at Crystal Palace: 0-0, D
- Sept. 17 vs. Barnsley: 7-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 14 at Southampton: 3-0, W
- Sept. 1 vs. Liverpool: 0-3, L
- Aug. 24 at Brighton: 1-2, L
Twente Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 22 at Almere City FC: 5-0, W
- Sept. 17 vs. SC Heerenveen: 2-0, W
- Sept. 14 vs. PEC Zwolle: 1-1, D
- Sept. 1 at FC Utrecht: 1-2, L
- Aug. 17 vs. Sparta Rotterdam: 1-1, D
