First Four Predictions: Odds, Bets For Opening Tournament Games

Tuesday’s First Four games kick off a 96-hour extravaganza of 36 March Madness games. 

If you’re looking to get into the action, the BetMGM online sportsbook has loads of March Madness college basketball odds, including single-game spreads, Sweet 16 futures and odds to win the NCAA Tournament.

Tuesday’s first two games may seem like cannon fodder to casual fans, but anyone experienced in online sports betting knows that even games between No. 16 seeds can offer quality betting opportunities.

First Four Odds

Saint Francis PA vs. Alabama State Prediction

Here’s the first game of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, and it’s a doozy. There’s something weirdly funny to me about two No. 4 seeds winning their respective low-major conference tournaments and squaring off in the First Four.

The difference here is that Alabama State is a decent team, as far as fourth-place teams in bad conferences go. The Hornets played some tough games in the nonconference, including six top 100 foes per KenPom. When Southern gacked in the SWAC tournament, Alabama State was good enough to capitalize. 

That’s a quite different profile from Saint Francis, which was seven games under .500 just a month ago. The Red Flashes then won three straight overtime games to close the regular season, then won all three conference tournament games by three points. 

Saint Francis is a bad team that had a good two weeks at the roulette table, with every result going their way. In a tournament game against an unfamiliar opponent, though, I’ll take the more practiced team at a small number, which is Alabama State. 

Saint Francis PA vs. Alabama State Pick: Alabama State -3.5

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Prediction

Believe it or not, San Diego State has played nine NCAA Tournament games in the last two years, giving us a great baseline of what Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs look like in the postseason.

From a betting perspective, the answer is a team that skews toward the under. San Diego State is 6-3 to the under in those nine NCAA games. The record improves to 4-1 if you only sample the front-end (first) games of a tournament week, like a first-round game or a Sweet 16 game. 

North Carolina plays with a lot of pace, and that’s what is going to scare total bettors here. But San Diego State played a very similar team (Fresno State) a few weeks ago, and the game was basically dead on the closing total. 

Perhaps not coincidentally, that number was… 141.5. 

In a win-or-go-home setting, bettors can likely expect a higher defensive intensity. (You can also probably expect North Carolina to do a better job challenging San Diego State’s ball action than a pretty lousy Fresno team.) I’ll play the under trend. 

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Pick: Under 142.5

Xavier vs. Texas Prediction

I think it’s pretty telling that the big bad SEC breaks the NCAA Tournament record for most teams from a single conference, and in the first game featuring an SEC team, Texas is promptly an underdog.

That’s partly because the Longhorns have been pretty lousy for most of the last two months. The double-overtime conference tournament win over Texas A&M provided a nice deodorant for a rather smelly five-week stretch that included very few wins. Texas finished its SEC schedule with a 6-12 conference record.

I don’t love the bet like I do some of the others, but I’ll bypass the point spread here and play the Xavier moneyline. 

I do think this game is probably the best option for a same-game parlay. BetMGM players can combine Xavier and the over 149.5 for a nice payout. Both teams play fast and have adjusted offensive efficiencies that rank in the top 60. 

Xavier vs. Texas Pick: Xavier -155; Over 149.5

Mount St. Mary’s vs. American Prediction

This game is a clear opportunity to bet the under. Both teams have slow, inefficient offenses, and those tendencies will likely be magnified in a tournament setting. American, in particular, has one of the slowest offenses in Division I basketball.

That said, sharp bettors pounced on this opportunity right away on Sunday night, buying this down from 132.5 all the way to 129.5. 

I’d still confidently bet the number that’s available on Monday, but three points of value on a college hoops total in the low 130s is not nothing.

Mount St. Mary’s vs. American Pick: Under 129.5