- The Astros are -105 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Astros vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Astros / Blue Jays TV Channel: SCHN | RSN
The Houston Astros (-105) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-115) on Tuesday, July 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Astros are 43-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 38-46 ATS.
Astros vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 4-6, 5.71 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Jose Berrios 7-6, 3.40 ERA
Astros vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -115 | -105 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -105 | -115 |
Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 32 games (+17.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+12.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+10.25 Units / 205% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 30% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 67 games (+16.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+11.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.55 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 away games (+8.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 54% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games (+10.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+4.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.85 Units / 24% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 41-43 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -0.98% ROI).
- 43-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.45 Units / -8.8% ROI
- 31-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.3 Units / -25.4% ROI
- 50-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.9 Units / 17.06% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 38-46 against the Run Line (-17 Units / -15.06% ROI).
- 38-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -14.1% ROI
- 39-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.3 Units / -7.92% ROI
- 42-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -1.35% ROI
Blue Jays vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Blue Jays vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Blue Jays vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Blue Jays vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Jose Berrios (TOR) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .062 (1-for-16) against Spencer Arrighetti when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — 2nd best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .259 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .062 (1-for-16) against Spencer Arrighetti when going through the lineup the first time in a game — tied for 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 97th Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed an OBP of just .125 (24 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 games) — best among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .306 — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed an OBP of .443 (115 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .320 — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .345 (20-for-58) against Jose Berrios’ elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .210 — first Percentile.
Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (270/684) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Jose Berrios has a strikeout rate of just 16% (25 SO in 153 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Jose Berrios has a strikeout rate of just 15% (11 SO in 71 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — eighth Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Astros are just 0-31 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Astros are 32-4 (.889) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Astros are 238-169 (.585) since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 51-32 (.614) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .460.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Blue Jays are just 8-40 (.167) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Blue Jays are just 13-86 (.131) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Blue Jays are just 14-64 (.179) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Blue Jays are 21-17 (.553) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 799 strikeouts in 4,568 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 478 strikeouts in 2,718 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .486 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .361.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (493/3,180 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 643 strikeouts in 3,343 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 397 strikeouts in 2,104 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 129 strikeouts in 699 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,104 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have walked 310 of 3,183 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.53 (1776.0 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Blue Jays have won just just 3% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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