- The Astros are -115 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Astros vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Astros / Blue Jays TV Channel: SCHN | RSN | MLBN
The Houston Astros (-110) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-110) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Astros are 44-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 38-48 ATS.
Astros vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 6-5, 4.13 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 7-6, 3.24 ERA
Astros vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -115 | -110 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -105 | -110 |
Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+10.25 Units / 205% ROI)
- Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 30% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games (+14.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 28 games (+14.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.65 Units / 39% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 85 games (+10.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+9.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+4.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 43-43 against the Run Line (+1.45 Units / 1.38% ROI).
- 44-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.55 Units / -8.72% ROI
- 33-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.3 Units / -22.65% ROI
- 50-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.8 Units / 14.48% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 38-48 against the Run Line (-19.65 Units / -17.01% ROI).
- 39-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -13.84% ROI
- 41-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -5.61% ROI
- 42-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -3.54% ROI
Blue Jays vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Loperfido (HOU) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Blue Jays vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Blue Jays vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Blue Jays vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt (TOR) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -175 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (156/251) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (136/218) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 75% (44/59) against Framber Valdez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (108/171) against Framber Valdez in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (21/167) against Chris Bassitt with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (147 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 80.8
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (15/119) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has averaged 70.8 MPH on curveballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 79.6 — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Astros are just 0-32 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Astros are 36-23 (.610) after a road loss since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Astros are 19-18 (.514) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Astros are 55-48 (.534) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Blue Jays are just 8-41 (.163) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Blue Jays are just 3-39 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Blue Jays are just 5-12 (.294) after a road win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Blue Jays are 191-52 (.786) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 804 strikeouts in 4,594 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros hitters have just 156 strikeouts in 943 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
16% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (510/3,263 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 398 strikeouts in 2,107 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 644 strikeouts in 3,346 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 952 strikeouts in 5,096 PA’s (19%) in righty-righty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 2,528 strikeouts in 12,217 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Astros pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have walked 317 of 3,249 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Blue Jays pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 246 of 3,661 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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