The Houston Astros (-175) visit Clover Park to take on the New York Mets (+145) on Saturday, March 23, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Port St. Lucie, FL.
This season, the Astros are 9-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 10-9 ATS.
Astros vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Astros | -175 |
| Mets | +145 |
Astros vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Corey Julks has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.85 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- No trends found
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 84 away games (+23.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 84 away games (+16.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games at home (+18.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Astros are 9-9 against the Run Line (+0 Units / -3.49% ROI).
- 9-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / -13.04% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / -6.86% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / -4.42% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mets are 10-9 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / 2.75% ROI).
- 9-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -6.4% ROI
- 3-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -59.54% ROI
- 14-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 50.33% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 26% (119/459) against Cristian Javier in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 20% (38/194) against Cristian Javier in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters swung at 37% of Cristian Javier’s non-fastballs (447/1,199) in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Cristian Javier elevated 50% of his pitches (687/1,374) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of 35% (17/48) versus Jose Quintana on low breaking pitches in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.2 MPH against his fastballs since the 2022 season (389 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 90.6
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (55/174) against Jose Quintana against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 98th Percentile.
Jose Quintana has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.2 MPH on inside pitches since the 2022 season (205 balls in play) — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are 90-23 (.796) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 61-39 (.610) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Astros are 38-20 (.655) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Astros are 15-11 (.577) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Mets are 151-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 6-123 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Mets are 46-28 (.622) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
The Astros have won 90% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 63% on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Astros are 21-5 (.808) against the run line (28.4% ROI) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .553.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets batted just .235 at home in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .343 (764 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Mets hitters had a groundball batting average of just .228 in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 35% of their games since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, Out
- Yacksel Rios (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Back, Out
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, Out
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
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