The Houston Astros (-105) visit CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (-115) on Friday, March 1, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in West Palm Beach, FL.
This season, the Astros are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 3-3 ATS.
Astros vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Astros | -105 |
| Nationals | -115 |
Astros vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 96% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 away games (+3.40 Units / 170% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Drew Millas has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 84 away games (+23.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 84 away games (+16.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 156 games (+2.30 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Astros are 2-3 against the Run Line (-1.27 Units / -20.58% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 7.14% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.52 Units / -27.54% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.62 Units / 11.27% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Nationals are 3-3 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -15.95% ROI).
- 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.33 Units / 48.83% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 13.85% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -20.9% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez located 41% of his pitches inside (1,210/2,952) in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez located 47% of his pitches inside (361/767) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez located 41% of his pitches inside (1,210/2,952) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Framber Valdez had third base stolen on him 8 times in the 2023 season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has an average spin rate of 1971.5 RPM on sliders since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2397.6 — second Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore walked 22 of 168 batters (13%) versus the bottom of the order in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 36% (65/180) against MacKenzie Gore on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore threw fastballs 72% of the time (394/548) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 53% — 96th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Astros are 15-11 (.577) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Astros are 90-23 (.796) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 79-47 (.627) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 163-11 (.937) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Nationals are just 21-36 (.368) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 39-64 (.379) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 63-43 (.594) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Nationals are just 37-72 (.339) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 63% on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Astros are 21-5 (.808) against the run line (28.4% ROI) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .553.
Astros hitters slugged .460 on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters struck out just 809 times in 4,217 PA’s (19%) against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals batted just .293 in hitter’s counts in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .343.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 35% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Astros won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents batted .273 against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Nationals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Lower Leg, Out
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, Out
- Joey Meneses (Washington Nationals): Knee, Out
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Dominic Smith (Washington Nationals): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Back, Out
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, Out
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
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