- The Astros are +100 favorites vs the Twins
- Astros vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Astros / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | SCHN
The Houston Astros (+100) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-120) on Sunday, April 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Astros are 3-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 3-5 ATS.
Astros vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Ronel Blanco 0-1, 5.41 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 0-1, 24.32 ERA
Astros vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -115 | +100 |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Astros vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+17.00 Units / 425% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.90 Units / 70% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Harrison Bader has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+14.30 Units / 286% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 29% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 124 games (+14.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 105 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+16.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 2-6 against the Run Line (-4.65 Units / -44.71% ROI).
- 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -30.32% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.75 Units / -41.44% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 32.16% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 3-5 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -15.85% ROI).
- 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -32.31% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 20.57% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -28.81% ROI
Twins vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Twins vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Twins vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronel Blanco (HOU) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
| Chris Paddack (MIN) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ronel Blanco has walked 34 of 279 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Ronel Blanco walked 33 of 270 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has walked 28 of 265 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .155 (45-for-291) against Ronel Blanco when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Paddack has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (15 Total Bases / 15 ABs) this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .403 — first Percentile.
Chris Paddack has allowed an OPS of 1.500 (20 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .710 — first Percentile.
Chris Paddack has located his breaking pitches away 90% of the time (26/29) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .339 (37 GB hits out of 109 GBs) against Chris Paddack in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .245 — second Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 18-23 (.439) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Twins are 63-28 (.692) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
The Twins were just 32-46 (.410) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Astros (seventh best runs allowed) today.
The Twins were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have chased 17% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Astros hitters do not have an extra-base hit out of 1 total hit against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have just 654 strikeouts in 3,488 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .082 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .229.
Twins hitters have 4 extra-base hits out of 5 total hits (80%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .312 (67 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .249 (281 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Twins pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .357 against Twins pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 30% against Twins pitchers over the last week of the regular season (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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