- The Red Sox are -225 favorites vs the Athletics
- Athletics vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Athletics / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | NSCA
The Oakland Athletics (+180) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-225) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Athletics are 35-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 43-48 ATS.
Athletics vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Athletics starting pitcher: Luis Medina 2-3, 4.42 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 7-6, 2.66 ERA
Athletics vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Athletics | +1.5 +100 | O 10 -115 | +180 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 -120 | U 10 -105 | -225 |
Athletics vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 67.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Athletics players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Athletics Player Prop Bets Today:
- Zack Gelof has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+24.00 Units / 120% ROI)
- Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Tyler Nevin has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.35 Units / 57% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Tyler Nevin has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.65 Units / 72% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Athletics Best Bets Today:
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 away games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+7.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.05 Units / 22% ROI)
Athletics Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Athletics are 47-47 against the Run Line (-9.85 Units / -8.22% ROI).
- 35-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.5 Units / -10.77% ROI
- 41-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -13.89% ROI
- 50-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.15 Units / 4% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 43-48 against the Run Line (-10.55 Units / -8.75% ROI).
- 50-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 3.87% ROI
- 44-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.65 Units / -1.65% ROI
- 42-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -6.17% ROI
Red Sox vs Athletics Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brent Rooker (OAK) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Red Sox vs Athletics Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brent Rooker (OAK) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Red Sox vs Athletics RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Brent Rooker (OAK) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Athletics Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Medina (OAK) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
Athletics Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Medina has a first-pitch strike rate of just 51% (328/648) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (36/268) against Luis Medina on elevated fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Medina has walked 35 of 264 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Luis Medina has walked 75 of 652 batters (12%) since last season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .176 (9-for-51) against Tanner Houck when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .321 — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .253 (57 Total Bases / 225 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .398 — 95th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .513 (244 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .700 — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .455 (162 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .677 — 98th Percentile.
Athletics Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Athletics are just 7-10 (.412) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Athletics are just 10-26 (.278) after a road loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Athletics are just 82-139 (.371) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Athletics are just 145-272 (.348) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Athletics
The Red Sox are 44-9 (.830) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Red Sox are 103-5 (.954) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Red Sox are 30-3 (.909) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .754.
The Red Sox are 71-56 (.559) after a win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
Athletics Hitting Stats & Trends
Athletics hitters are slugging just .158 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Athletics hitters have an OBP of just .293 (3,918 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Athletics hitters have an OBP of just .298 (2,386 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
The Athletics are batting just .118 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 289 strikeouts in 997 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .270 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .331 (4,122 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Athletics Pitching Stats & Trends
Athletics pitchers have an ERA of 5.64 (1073.0 IP) on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Athletics pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Athletics pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Athletics pitchers have an ERA of 5.19 (1760.1 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 238 of 3,417 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.26 (405.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 50 of 818 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strike rate of 66% this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Red Sox vs. Athletics Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Ken Waldichuk (Oakland Athletics): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Aledmys Diaz (Oakland Athletics): Calf, 60-Day IL
- Freddy Tarnok (Oakland Athletics): Hip, 15-Day IL
- James Kaprielian (Oakland Athletics): Shoulder, Out
- Trevor Gott (Oakland Athletics): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Drew Rucinski (Oakland Athletics): Back, Out
- Sean Newcomb (Oakland Athletics): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Luis Medina (Oakland Athletics): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Angel Felipe (Oakland Athletics): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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