- The Guardians are -140 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Blue Jays vs Guardians Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Blue Jays / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | RSN | MLBN
The Toronto Blue Jays (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-150) on Saturday, June 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Blue Jays are 35-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 42-31 ATS.
Blue Jays vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Jose Berrios 6-5, 3.16 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 6-3, 3.04 ERA
Blue Jays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 +100 | +125 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -120 | -150 |
Blue Jays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+14.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+14.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 14 away games (+12.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.65 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 14 of his last 49 games (+30.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 28 of his last 50 games (+14.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+11.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.85 Units / 58% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 away games (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+6.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+3.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 73 games (+16.62 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 73 games (+16.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 73 games (+16.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games (+12.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games (+11.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 33-42 against the Run Line (-15.3 Units / -15.61% ROI).
- 35-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.5 Units / -12.55% ROI
- 32-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.25 Units / -16.11% ROI
- 41-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.4 Units / 6.53% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 42-31 against the Run Line (+16.45 Units / 18.63% ROI).
- 47-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.62 Units / 17.47% ROI
- 35-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -1.73% ROI
- 33-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -6.47% ROI
Guardians vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Guardians vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Guardians vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Guardians vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios (TOR) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .346 (18-for-52) against Jose Berrios’ elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .207 — first Percentile.
Jose Berrios allowed a batting average of .288 vs right-handed batters (fifth worst)– sixth Percentile and just .194 vs left-handed batters this season (sixth best among qualified SPs)– 91st Percentile.
Jose Berrios allowed a batting average of .288 vs right-handed batters (13th worst)– 12th Percentile and just .194 vs left-handed batters this season (seventh best among non-qualified SPs)– 93rd Percentile.
Jose Berrios has a strikeout rate of just 10% (7 SO in 73 PAs) this month (3 games) — lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 9% (26/287) against Ben Lively since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 0 Percentile.
Ben Lively has an average spin rate of 1998.9 RPM on sliders since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 2412.8 — third Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (67/229) against Ben Lively since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 19% (152/782) against Ben Lively in non-two strike counts since last season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Blue Jays are 26-20 (.565) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Blue Jays are just 8-37 (.178) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Blue Jays are just 13-81 (.138) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Blue Jays are just 11-21 (.344) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Guardians are 12-10 (.545) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .304.
The Guardians are 37-135 (.215) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 8-10 (.444) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Guardians are 24-9 (.727) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 625 strikeouts in 3,266 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have 142 extra-base hits out of 464 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 379 strikeouts in 2,027 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,027 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,940 strikeouts in 10,699 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Guardians are batting just .278 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 241 of 3,564 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Blue Jays have won just just 4% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 25% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Blue Jays pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .181 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Guardians pitchers have walked 10 of 52 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.66 runs per game (48/73) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Guardians vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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