- The Blue Jays are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Blue Jays vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Blue Jays / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | RSN1 | MLBN
The Toronto Blue Jays (-175) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+145) on Saturday, May 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Blue Jays are 15-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 20-12 ATS.
Blue Jays vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman 1-3, 4.45 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 2-2, 4.32 ERA
Blue Jays vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 -105 | O 8 -105 | -175 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | U 8 -125 | +145 |
Blue Jays vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 64.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Springer has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+16.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 18 games (+11.20 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Senzel has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+27.50 Units / 275% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+14.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+14.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games at home (+13.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 129 games (+10.19 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 away games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 41 away games (+2.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 87 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.39 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 14-19 against the Run Line (-7.65 Units / -17.39% ROI).
- 15-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -15.29% ROI
- 13-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.9 Units / -24.72% ROI
- 20-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.5 Units / 15.03% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 20-12 against the Run Line (+5.83 Units / 13.79% ROI).
- 16-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.9 Units / 27.43% ROI
- 13-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -16.06% ROI
- 17-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.53 Units / 7.12% ROI
Nationals vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Nationals vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Nationals vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 37% (295/790) against Kevin Gausman on sliders since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 34% (206 SO in 612 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has allowed an OBP of just .260 (323 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — 93rd Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has walked 27 of 589 batters (5%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 89th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has walked 1 of 61 right-handed batters (2%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has a strikeout rate of just 11% (6 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Jake Irvin has a strikeout rate of 39% (14 SO in 36 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 89th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has allowed an OPS of .880 (74 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .688 — 10th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Blue Jays are 22-17 (.564) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Blue Jays are 172-43 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Blue Jays are 21-10 (.677) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are just 10-67 (.130) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Nationals are just 14-23 (.378) after a home win since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 52-88 (.371) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Nationals are just 43-68 (.387) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 65-110 (.371) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .236 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Blue Jays hitters have just 564 strikeouts in 2,923 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting just .236 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,684 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Nationals are batting just .090 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals have scored first in just 15% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 31% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 10% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .354 (3,126 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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