The Toronto Blue Jays (+105) visit LECOM Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) on Thursday, March 21, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Bradenton, FL.
This season, the Blue Jays are 0-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 0-1 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +105 |
| Pirates | -125 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in his last game (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)
- Kevin Kiermaier has hit the Runs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Runs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.30 Units / 77% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+1.95 Units / 195% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in his last game at home (+1.25 Units / 125% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 139 games (+11.74 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 away games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 41 away games (+2.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 86.96% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -100% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Pirates are 0-1 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 86.96% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -100% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ricky Tiedemann is making his MLB debut today.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter located 44% of his pitches inside (572/1,296) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 18% (120/656) against Bailey Falter in the 2023 season — 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Bailey Falter located 49% of his pitches inside (504/1,037) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has an average spin rate of 2049.1 RPM on curveballs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2529.5 — second Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Blue Jays are 158-36 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Blue Jays are 68-103 (.398) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Blue Jays are 18-13 (.581) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Blue Jays were 34-52 (.395) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Pirates are just 111-56 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Pirates are just 131-158 (.453) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Pirates are just 23-37 (.383) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Pirates are just 33-43 (.434) after a home win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters struck out just 645 times in 3,295 PA’s (20%) in righty-righty matchups in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
27% of Blue Jays hitters strikeouts came on 95+ MPH fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters had an OPS of .765 (3,202 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 21% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Pirates hitters chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays pitchers had an ERA of 3.90 (706.2 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games in the 2023 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 2,021 times since the 2022 season — 4th most in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cavan Biggio (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
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