The Toronto Blue Jays (-125) visit LECOM Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Tuesday, March 5, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Bradenton, FL.
This season, the Blue Jays are 3-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 5-5 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -125 |
| Pirates | +105 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tyler Heineman has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ernie Clement has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.30 Units / 77% ROI)
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 139 games (+11.74 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 away games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 41 away games (+2.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 2-6 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -47.13% ROI).
- 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -37.11% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -26.7% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 20.98% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Pirates are 5-5 against the Run Line (-0.99 Units / -7.34% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.22 Units / -19.06% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 16.56% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -22.87% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios attempted to pick off a runner at second base 17 timesin the 2023 season — most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .139 (52-for-374) against Jose Berrios with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 91st Percentile.
Jose Berrios struck out 47 batters on three pitches in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd most among pitchers in MLB — 99th Percentile.
46 of Jose Berrios’ 184 strikeouts (25%) came on changeups in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 91st Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jared Jones is making his MLB debut today.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Blue Jays are 158-36 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Blue Jays are 68-103 (.398) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Blue Jays are 18-13 (.581) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Blue Jays were 34-52 (.395) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Pirates are just 56-80 (.412) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Pirates were 34-7 (.829) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Pirates are just 111-56 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Pirates are just 33-43 (.434) after a home win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Blue Jays hitters struck out just 268 times in 1,405 PA’s (19%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters had an OBP of .334 (3,202 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Blue Jays hitters had 107 extra-base hits out of 340 total hits (just 32%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 42% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers had an ERA of 3.90 (706.2 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers won only 15% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Pirates pitchers had allowed a run 36% of the time after scoring a run on offense in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cavan Biggio (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
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