Blue Jays vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 23

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(AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 23, 2024, 11:02 AM
  • The Blue Jays are -125 favorites vs the Royals
  • Blue Jays vs Royals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Blue Jays / Royals TV Channel: BSKC | RSN1

The Toronto Blue Jays (-125) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on Tuesday, April 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.

This season, the Blue Jays are 13-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 13-10 ATS.

Blue Jays vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman 0-2, 8.17 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 1-2, 3.75 ERA

Blue Jays vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 +135O 8 +100-125
Royals +1.5 -160U 8 -120+105

Blue Jays vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Kevin Kiermaier has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Kevin Kiermaier has hit the Hits Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.55 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Kevin Kiermaier has hit the Total Bases Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 66% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.55 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 139 games (+11.74 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 away games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 41 away games (+2.20 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.08 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 13-10 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 2.64% ROI).

  • 13-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 6.81% ROI
  • 10-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.55 Units / -17.91% ROI
  • 13-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.75 Units / 6.93% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 13-10 against the Run Line (+0.15 Units / 0.49% ROI).

  • 13-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 11.46% ROI
  • 8-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.8 Units / -30% ROI
  • 14-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.4 Units / 21.82% ROI

Royals vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 0.5 +500 0.5 -750
Daulton Varsho (TOR) 0.5 +525 0.5 -750
MJ Melendez (KC) 0.5 +525 0.5 -800

Royals vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Justin Turner (TOR) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TOR) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Alejandro Kirk (TOR) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Maikel Garcia (KC) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190

Royals vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +120 0.5 -155
Justin Turner (TOR) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Bo Bichette (TOR) 0.5 +155 0.5 -200

Royals vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under

Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 34% (204 SO in 594 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 52% (13/25) against Kevin Gausman on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 36% (506/1,403) against Kevin Gausman since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 34% (107 SO in 315 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Michael Wacha has allowed a slugging percentage of just .114 (4 Total Bases / 35 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .365 — 100th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has allowed an OBP of just .139 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .283 — 100th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has allowed an OBP of just .139 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 100th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has allowed an OPS of just .253 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .657 — 100th Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Blue Jays are 21-10 (.677) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Blue Jays are 71-115 (.382) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .280.

The Blue Jays are 78-31 (.716) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .577.

The Blue Jays are 21-15 (.583) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Royals are just 18-14 (.562) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Royals are just 13-85 (.133) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.

The Royals are just 9-44 (.170) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.

The Royals are just 3-11 (.214) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Blue Jays hitters have just 541 strikeouts in 2,811 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Blue Jays hitters have just 27 strikeouts in 167 PA’s (16%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Blue Jays are batting .271 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .253.

Blue Jays hitters have just 295 strikeouts in 1,572 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (3,290 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.

The Royals have won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Blue Jays pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Blue Jays pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .284 against Royals pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .254.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Royals vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
  • Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
  • Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
  • Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
  • Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
  • Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
  • Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
  • Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.