- The Brewers are -130 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Brewers Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Braves / Brewers TV Channel: BSSO | BSWI
The Atlanta Braves (+105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-125) on Tuesday, July 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Braves are 56-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 56-50 ATS.
Braves vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder 1-4, 6.47 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Braves vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -185 | O 9 +100 | +105 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -120 | -125 |
Braves vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+16.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 30 of his last 37 games (+16.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+16.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 away games (+13.80 Units / 134% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 games at home (+26.50 Units / 126% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+13.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+12.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+12.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 36% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 91 games (+27.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 away games (+10.79 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 away games (+7.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 away games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 away games (+1.90 Units / 13% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+13.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+12.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 106 games (+10.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 106 games (+9.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+8.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 46-59 against the Run Line (-15.75 Units / -12.6% ROI).
- 56-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.75 Units / -10.41% ROI
- 38-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.6 Units / -25.78% ROI
- 62-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.05 Units / 17.23% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 56-50 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 2.87% ROI).
- 61-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.7 Units / 7.15% ROI
- 57-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.35 Units / 8.94% ROI
- 43-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.95 Units / -16.99% ROI
Brewers vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Brewers vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Garrett Mitchell (MIL) | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Brewers vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder (ATL) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has averaged 89.8 MPH on fastballs in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — fourth Percentile.
Bryce Elder has struck out just 14% (82/584) of left-handed batters he faced since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 171 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (176/301) against Bryce Elder since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (215/377) against Bryce Elder since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 171 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .154 (4-for-26) against Rob Zastryzny this month (9 games) — 14th best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .242 — 87th Percentile.
Rob Zastryzny has a strikeout rate of just 29% (5 SO in 17 PAs) with two-strikes this month (7 games) — 12th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 11th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 60% of Rob Zastryzny’s pitches (72/119) this month (9 games) — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Rob Zastryzny has allowed a slugging percentage of just .192 (5 Total Bases / 26 ABs) this month (9 games) — tied for 9th best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .406 — 92nd Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Braves are just 3-8 (.273) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Braves are just 7-15 (.318) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Braves are 97-62 (.610) after a win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Braves are 51-27 (.654) after a home win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Brewers are 42-3 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Brewers are 35-32 (.522) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Brewers are 39-36 (.520) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Brewers are 46-49 (.484) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves are batting .305 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Braves hitters are slugging .457 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Braves have barrels in 8% of PA’s in the 2023 season (514/6,249) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
The Braves have barrels in 7% of PA’s since last season (764/10,153) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .386 (224 PA’s) against LHP this month (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Brewers are batting just .239 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have 244 extra-base hits out of 866 total hits (just 28%) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (2,465 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Brewers have won 52% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 22 of 198 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (22 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Brewers vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
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