Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 10

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Arizona Diamondbacks designated hitter Lourdes Gurriel Jr. bats during the third inning of a baseball game, Saturday, June 10, 2023, in Detroit.
(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 10, 2024, 11:00 AM
  • The Braves are -130 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
  • Braves vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9 Runs
  • Braves / Diamondbacks TV Channel: BSSO | DBTV | ESPN+ | MLBN

The Atlanta Braves (-115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) on Wednesday, July 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.

This season, the Braves are 51-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 45-47 ATS.

Braves vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 5-5, 4.03 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Slade Cecconi 2-6, 6.14 ERA

Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +145O 8.5 -105-115
Diamondbacks +1.5 -175U 8.5 -115-105

Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 54.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 away games (+20.30 Units / 127% ROI)
  • Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+15.35 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 76 games (+27.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 away games (+12.94 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 away games (+10.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.75 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 36 games (+14.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+10.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+6.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+4.15 Units / 9% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 42-48 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -5.27% ROI).

  • 51-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -7.33% ROI
  • 31-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.6 Units / -28.12% ROI
  • 54-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.75 Units / 19.76% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 45-47 against the Run Line (-8.75 Units / -7.15% ROI).

  • 45-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.6 Units / -4.89% ROI
  • 48-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.65 Units / 2.6% ROI
  • 41-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -11.21% ROI

Diamondbacks vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 +260 0.5 -350
Matt Olson (ATL) 0.5 +275 0.5 -350
Austin Riley (ATL) 0.5 +350 0.5 -450
Adam Duvall (ATL) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Christian Walker (ARI) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600

Diamondbacks vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Matt Olson (ATL) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Christian Walker (ARI) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Eddie Rosario (WAS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Travis D'Arnaud (ATL) 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Diamondbacks vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 0.5 +110 0.5 -145
Matt Olson (ATL) 0.5 +115 0.5 -150
Austin Riley (ATL) 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Ozzie Albies (ATL) 0.5 +135 0.5 -185
Christian Walker (ARI) 0.5 +140 0.5 -190

Diamondbacks vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Charlie Morton (ATL) 5.5 -140 5.5 +105
Slade Cecconi (ARI) 4.5 +105 4.5 -140

Charlie Morton has walked 71 of 689 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 55% of the time (250/459) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (390/872) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (616/1,511) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Slade Cecconi has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (78 Total Bases / 104 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .395 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .404 (42-for-104) against Slade Cecconi when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 0 Percentile.

Slade Cecconi has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to June 18th — Mitch Keller has the longest active streak at 5.

Slade Cecconi has allowed a slugging percentage of .645 (20 Total Bases / 31 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .400 — sixth Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.

The Braves are 50-56 (.472) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.

The Braves are 34-67 (.337) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .212.

The Braves are 67-121 (.356) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .280.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Diamondbacks are just 9-38 (.191) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.

The Diamondbacks are just 171-16 (.914) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.

The Diamondbacks are just 108-10 (.915) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.

The Diamondbacks are just 8-17 (.320) after a home win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.

Braves hitters are slugging .686 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.

The Braves are batting .313 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Braves hitters have an OBP of .380 (1,167 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.

Braves hitters are slugging .467 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.

The Diamondbacks are batting .280 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,081 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

27% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .484 with two-strikes this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .293.

Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.4 MPH (2,103 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.

The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.4 MPH this season (2,103 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9

The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Diamondbacks have won just 12% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
  • Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
  • Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
  • Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
  • Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
  • Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.