- The Braves are -125 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Braves vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Braves / Diamondbacks TV Channel: BSSO | DBTV | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Braves are 51-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 46-47 ATS.
Braves vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 7-4, 3.17 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 3-6, 4.17 ERA
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -105 | -120 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -115 | +100 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 away games (+20.30 Units / 127% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+15.35 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 77 games (+26.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 away games (+11.54 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+9.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.75 Units / 30% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games (+15.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+5.15 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 42-49 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -6.17% ROI).
- 51-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.25 Units / -7.96% ROI
- 32-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.6 Units / -26.83% ROI
- 54-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.55 Units / 18.34% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 46-47 against the Run Line (-7.75 Units / -6.24% ROI).
- 46-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -3.97% ROI
- 49-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 3.54% ROI
- 41-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.45 Units / -12.26% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried (ATL) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .180 (24 Total Bases / 133 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (70/105) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (201/467) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (201/467) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt allowed a batting average of just .184 vs right-handed batters (seventh best)– 90th Percentile and .308 vs left-handed batters this season (second worst among qualified SPs)– fourth Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .308 (64-for-208) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — fourth Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OBP of just .235 (221 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 92nd Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .184 (38-for-207) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 90th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 29-48 (.377) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Braves are 83-47 (.638) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Braves are 23-12 (.657) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are 17-11 (.607) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 8-17 (.320) after a home win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Diamondbacks are just 9-38 (.191) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Diamondbacks are 38-9 (.809) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OBP of .380 (1,168 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .358 (1,884 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .825 (2,383 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Braves are batting .276 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
27% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .816 (194 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .959 (257 PA’s) on the road this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 36% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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