- The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Mets TV Channel: BSSE | SNY
The Atlanta Braves (+100) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-120) on Saturday, July 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Braves are 54-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 51-52 ATS.
Braves vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 3-5, 4.62 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 2-4, 5.08 ERA
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -210 | O 8 -115 | +100 |
| Mets | -1.5 +160 | U 8 -105 | -120 |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 29 of his last 34 games (+19.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+17.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 44 games (+16.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+14.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 33 games (+12.70 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+29.00 Units / 145% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 38 games (+16.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+14.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 88 games (+29.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 47 away games (+13.79 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 59 of their last 94 games (+17.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 44 games (+16.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 21 games at home (+13.10 Units / 53% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games (+10.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 44-58 against the Run Line (-15.75 Units / -13.24% ROI).
- 54-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.75 Units / -11.2% ROI
- 36-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.6 Units / -27.42% ROI
- 61-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.25 Units / 18.81% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 51-52 against the Run Line (-3.15 Units / -2.39% ROI).
- 55-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 2.87% ROI
- 54-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.3 Units / 4.72% ROI
- 44-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -13.32% ROI
Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 35% (124/353) against Spencer Schwellenbach this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has a strike rate of 71% (562/795) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Spencer Schwellenbach’s pitches (431/795) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 97th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has walked 10 of 212 batters (5%) this season — 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .409 (176 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .324 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .396 (159-for-402) against Tylor Megill in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .447 (152 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .325 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .352 (45-for-128) against Tylor Megill when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .262 — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Braves are 96-61 (.611) after a win since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Braves are 52-27 (.658) after a home loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Braves are 45-110 (.290) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 6-38 (.136) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Mets are just 38-11 (.776) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are just 101-17 (.856) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Mets are 16-12 (.571) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .266 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .775 (1,117 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .746 (8,227 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Mets hitters are slugging .447 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (2,378 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 395 of 3,919 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 86 of 917 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 986 of 10,003 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
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