- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Padres Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Braves / Padres TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | PDTV
The Atlanta Braves (+105) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Friday, March 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA, USA.
This season, the Braves are 0-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 1-0 ATS.
Braves vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Braves vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -235 | O 7 +105 | +105 |
| Padres | -1.5 +175 | U 7 -125 | -125 |
Braves vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Reynaldo Lopez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+9.20 Units / 69% ROI)
- Reynaldo Lopez has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Reynaldo Lopez has hit the Earned Runs Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Reynaldo Lopez has hit the Strikeouts Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Reynaldo Lopez has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last away game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Dylan Cease has hit the Strikeouts Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+6.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+5.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 150 games (+39.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 32 away games (+12.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 32 away games (+12.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+10.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 92 games (+22.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games at home (+7.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 71 of their last 137 games (+5.90 Units / 3% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+3.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+3.40 Units / 7% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 0-1 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 105% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -100% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 57.14% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 105% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -100% ROI
Padres vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Padres vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Padres vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reynaldo Lopez walked 23 of 124 left-handed batters (18%) in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — second Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has an ERA of 1.72 (99.2 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 3.95 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .030 (1 GB hit out of 33 GBs) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a line drive rate of 32% (53/168) against Reynaldo Lopez in the 2024 season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease allowed an OBP of just .269 (757 PAs) last season — tied for seventh best among qualified SPs– 89th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) in the 2023 season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Dylan Cease threw breaking pitches 60% of the time (966/1,609) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 63 of 583 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .194 (148-for-762) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are 46-31 (.597) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season They play the None ( best runs allowed) today.
The Braves are 65-48 (.575) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the None ( best runs scored) today.
The Braves are 116-76 (.604) after a win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
The Braves are 95-67 (.586) on the road since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres were 19-47 (.288) when they allowed 5 or more runs in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Padres were 11-59 (.157) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2024 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Padres are 128-21 (.859) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .870 (1,425 PA’s) against LHP in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since the 2023 season (7,878 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
More MLB Reading:
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