- The Braves are +105 favorites vs the Padres
- Braves vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Padres TV Channel: ESPN
The Atlanta Braves (+105) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Sunday, March 30, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Braves are 0-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 2-1 ATS.
Braves vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Braves vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +170 | O 8.5 -120 | +105 |
| Padres | +1.5 -210 | U 8.5 +100 | -125 |
Braves vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+6.50 Units / 325% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+6.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jason Heyward has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+14.20 Units / 177% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 33% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 150 games (+39.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 32 away games (+12.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 32 away games (+12.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+10.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 92 games (+22.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games at home (+7.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 71 of their last 137 games (+5.90 Units / 3% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+3.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+3.40 Units / 7% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 1-2 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -25.97% ROI).
- 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.05 Units / -1.52% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -7.46% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 2-1 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 24.69% ROI).
- 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 98.51% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.05 Units / -1.52% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -7.46% ROI
Padres vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Padres vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Padres vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
AJ Smith-Shawver has limited playing time.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .759 (312 Total Bases / 411 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .572 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta allowed a slugging percentage of .766 (167 Total Bases / 218 ABs) in non-two strike counts in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .561 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .766 (167 Total Bases / 218 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .561 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .188 (50-for-266) against Nick Pivetta since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 97th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are 46-31 (.597) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the None ( best runs allowed) today.
The Braves were 33-57 (.367) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Braves are 37-89 (.294) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Braves are 65-48 (.575) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the None ( best runs scored) today.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Padres were 13-8 (.619) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Padres were 17-33 (.340) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Padres were 19-47 (.288) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .196.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters slugged .501 in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 287 strikeouts in 1,655 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have just 1,096 strikeouts in 6,204 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 1,077 times in 6,103 PA’s (18%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have walked 15 of 111 batters (14%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
More MLB Reading:
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