- The Braves are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Braves vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Braves / Red Sox TV Channel: BSSO | NESN
The Atlanta Braves (-165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+140) on Tuesday, June 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Braves are 33-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 27-33 ATS.
Braves vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 5-2, 2.96 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 2-4, 3.31 ERA
Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -105 | O 8 -105 | -165 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -115 | U 8 -115 | +140 |
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 64.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 43 games (+17.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+15.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 24 away games (+14.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+13.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+12.10 Units / 303% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+17.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 38 games (+14.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+10.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 25% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 43 games (+20.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 away games (+8.84 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 26 away games (+3.75 Units / 13% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+9.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 60 games (+6.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 60 games (+3.05 Units / 4% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 28-29 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 33-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.6 Units / -6.39% ROI
- 20-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.95 Units / -28.91% ROI
- 35-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.95 Units / 20.43% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 27-33 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -13.4% ROI).
- 30-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.55 Units / -3.55% ROI
- 24-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -16.24% ROI
- 32-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.85 Units / 8.83% ROI
Red Sox vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Red Sox vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Red Sox vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford (BOS) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
| Max Fried (ATL) | 7.5 +135 | 7.5 -175 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (117/185) against Max Fried this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 66% (94/143) against Max Fried this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.1 MPH this season (147 balls in play) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 83.1 MPH (147 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.9 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (20/74) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of just .135 (5 Total Bases / 37 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .341 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 30% (29/96) against Kutter Crawford this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — seventh Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of just .279 (36 Total Bases / 129 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .390 — 96th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 34-60 (.362) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Braves are just 2-6 (.250) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Braves are 17-66 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 24-36 (.400) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Red Sox are just 45-57 (.441) after a home loss since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Red Sox are just 1-99 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Red Sox are just 3-165 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .494 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .381 (1,015 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Braves hitters are slugging .472 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Braves hitters are slugging .472 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 164 strikeouts in 578 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .428 against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox are batting .269 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.1 MPH (1,357 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.1 MPH this season (1,357 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 32 of 538 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 154 of 2,229 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 137 of 1,973 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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