- The Braves are -110 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Braves vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Braves / Red Sox TV Channel: BSSO | NESN | MLBN
The Atlanta Braves (-110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-110) on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Braves are 34-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 27-34 ATS.
Braves vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 0-1, 5.41 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 2-4, 4.08 ERA
Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +145 | O 10 -125 | -110 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | U 10 -105 | -110 |
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 44 games (+18.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 49 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+15.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+14.20 Units / 158% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+14.00 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+18.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 39 games (+13.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+11.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 48 games (+6.85 Units / 12% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 44 games (+19.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+7.39 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 27 away games (+4.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.70 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+8.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 61 games (+6.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 61 games (+4.05 Units / 6% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 29-29 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 1.53% ROI).
- 34-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.6 Units / -5.34% ROI
- 21-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.95 Units / -26.8% ROI
- 35-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.9 Units / 18.46% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 27-34 against the Run Line (-12.1 Units / -14.66% ROI).
- 30-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.55 Units / -4.88% ROI
- 25-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -14.47% ROI
- 32-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.8 Units / 7.13% ROI
Red Sox vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
Red Sox vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Dominic Smith (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Red Sox vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Red Sox vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Schwellenbach has limited playing time.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .784 (192 Total Bases / 245 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: .574 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .170 (442 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 98th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .701 (383 Total Bases / 546 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: .560 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .120 (50-for-416) against Nick Pivetta with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: .172 — 97th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Braves are 49-49 (.500) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 34-60 (.362) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Braves are 44-72 (.379) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 24-37 (.393) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Red Sox are just 39-70 (.358) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Red Sox are just 48-160 (.231) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Red Sox are just 45-58 (.437) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .472 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .382 (1,022 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Braves hitters are slugging .472 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Braves hitters are slugging .494 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 177 strikeouts in 606 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox are batting .269 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have 545 strikeouts in 2,184 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 156 of 2,266 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 34 of 547 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Red Sox vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
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