The Atlanta Braves (-135) visit JetBlue Park at Fenway South to take on the Boston Red Sox (+110) on Sunday, March 24, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Fort Myers, FL.
This season, the Braves are 7-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 13-9 ATS.
Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Braves | -135 |
| Red Sox | +110 |
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.2% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Urias has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.70 Units / 90% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+0.80 Units / 40% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 83 away games (+4.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+3.45 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.09 Units / 50% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Braves are 8-7 against the Run Line (+0 Units / -0.52% ROI).
- 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / -1.6% ROI
- 6-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / -24.33% ROI
- 9-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 13.43% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Red Sox are 13-9 against the Run Line (-1.48 Units / 14.47% ROI).
- 10-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -6.18% ROI
- 6-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -43.37% ROI
- 15-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 34.37% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season (162 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (123/211) against Max Fried in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season (224 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 80.4
Max Fried had an ERA of 1.71 (47.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.42 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .164 (28-for-171) against Kutter Crawford’s fastball in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .270 — 100th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford threw his slider 47% of the time (199/419) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .106 (7-for-66) against Kutter Crawford on fastballs away in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .130 (13-for-100) against Kutter Crawford’s elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 98th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 46-41 (.529) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves were 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Braves were 24-31 (.436) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Braves are 164-34 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox were 59-4 (.937) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Red Sox were just 17-25 (.405) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 12-20 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Braves batted .288 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Braves hitters slugged .615 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Braves hitters slugged .493 on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .279 at home in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Red Sox pitchers had a strikeout rate of 22% when going through the lineup the third time in a game in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Red Sox pitchers threw over to first base 120 times in the 2023 season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Out
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Penn Murfee (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Eli White (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Jackson Stephens (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
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