- The Brewers are -105 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Brewers vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Brewers / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) on Friday, September 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Brewers are 84-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 76-70 ATS.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 10-8, 3.83 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez 2-2, 5.77 ERA
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -225 | O 8.5 -115 | +105 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -105 | -125 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 46 games (+28.70 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 47 games (+19.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+17.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+15.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+13.10 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 47 games (+40.25 Units / 86% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 43 games (+18.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+17.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+13.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+13.55 Units / 27% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 142 games (+12.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 84 of their last 146 games (+10.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 81 of their last 146 games (+9.45 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 81 of their last 146 games (+6.49 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 66% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 90 games (+32.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 89 games (+23.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 81 games (+13.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 75-71 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.24% ROI).
- 84-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 5.44% ROI
- 76-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.95 Units / 6.24% ROI
- 61-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.8 Units / -14.1% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 76-70 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -0.67% ROI).
- 82-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.15 Units / 7.69% ROI
- 84-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +20.7 Units / 12.8% ROI
- 57-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -35.15 Units / -22.01% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake McCarthy (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 30% (160 SO in 530 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 61% (851/1,385) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .211 (101-for-478) against Freddy Peralta when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (7/34) against Freddy Peralta this month (2 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Eduardo Rodriguez since last season is 384.2 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 398.5
Eduardo Rodriguez has an ERA of 2.29 (98.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 3.97 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .165 (15-for-91) against Eduardo Rodriguez on low fastballs since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .271 — 100th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Eduardo Rodriguez in the 2023 season was 381.5 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Brewers are 35-78 (.310) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Brewers are 12-6 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 63-28 (.692) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
The Brewers are 44-32 (.579) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Diamondbacks are 20-15 (.571) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Diamondbacks are 22-13 (.629) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Diamondbacks are 19-111 (.145) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Diamondbacks are 12-45 (.207) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .252 (242 PA’s) against RHP this month (10 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Brewers are batting just .176 this month (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .306 with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .327 (4,170 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .281 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .527 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .347 (2,727 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Diamondbacks are batting .250 with two-strikes this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .160.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.20 (907.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .236 against Brewers pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Brewers pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Arizona Diamondbacks – No Injuries Reported
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
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