- The Brewers are -130 favorites vs the Giants
- Brewers vs Giants Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Brewers / Giants TV Channel: BSWI | NSBA | MLBN
The Milwaukee Brewers (-130) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (+105) on Thursday, September 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45pm EDT in San Francisco, CA.
This season, the Brewers are 83-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 72-74 ATS.
Brewers vs Giants Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 6-10, 4.70 ERA
- Giants starting pitcher: Hayden Birdsong 3-5, 5.20 ERA
Brewers vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -110 | -130 |
| Giants | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -110 | +105 |
Brewers vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 49 games (+25.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 46 games (+17.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+16.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+14.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 away games (+11.95 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 49 games (+31.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 50 games (+17.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+15.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 49 games (+12.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jerar Encarnacion has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.70 Units / 55% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 141 games (+13.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 81 of their last 145 games (+10.45 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 83 of their last 145 games (+9.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 81 of their last 145 games (+8.04 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 games (+6.40 Units / 17% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 69 games at home (+7.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 105 games (+6.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 63 of their last 114 games (+5.50 Units / 4% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 69 games at home (+4.80 Units / 6% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 74-71 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -0.42% ROI).
- 83-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 4.95% ROI
- 76-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.1 Units / 7.01% ROI
- 60-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.8 Units / -14.81% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Giants are 72-74 against the Run Line (-7.7 Units / -4.05% ROI).
- 72-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.55 Units / -6.65% ROI
- 74-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 1.12% ROI
- 66-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.45 Units / -9.59% ROI
Giants vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mike Yastrzemski (SF) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Giants vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mike Yastrzemski (SF) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Giants vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Giants vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas (MIL) | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
| Hayden Birdsong (SF) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of just .045 (1 Total Bases / 22 ABs) with two-strikes in his last two starts — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 22% (132/600) against Frankie Montas since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has walked 18 of 158 batters (11%) versus the bottom of the order this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 53% (47/89) against Frankie Montas when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hayden Birdsong has limited playing time.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Brewers are 44-37 (.543) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Brewers are 35-78 (.310) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Brewers are 49-123 (.285) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 97-77 (.557) after a win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Giants are 124-4 (.969) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Giants are 189-6 (.969) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Giants are just 38-41 (.481) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Giants are 22-131 (.144) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,542 of their 5,538 plate appearances (28%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
The Giants are batting just .248 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Giants are batting just .231 on the road since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Giants hitters have 5 extra-base hits out of 6 total hits (83%) against LHP this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Giants hitters have an OBP of just .310 (5,663 PA’s) at home since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.20 (907.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.64 (1294.1 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Giants pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Giants vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- San Francisco Giants – No Injuries Reported
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
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