- The Brewers are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Brewers vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Brewers / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | FDWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (-130) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+110) on Monday, May 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Brewers are 19-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 20-19 ATS.
Brewers vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 4-2, 2.19 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 2-2, 3.52 ERA
Brewers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -110 | -130 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -110 | +110 |
Brewers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Isaac Collins has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+4.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Isaac Collins has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 away games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Isaac Collins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Earned Runs Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ben Lively has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ben Lively has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ben Lively has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ben Lively has hit the Earned Runs Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.85 Units / 44% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
Guardians Best Bets Today:
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 20-20 against the Run Line (-3.5 Units / -6.48% ROI).
- 19-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.4 Units / -6.95% ROI
- 15-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.45 Units / -21.31% ROI
- 22-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.55 Units / 12.71% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 20-19 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -5% ROI).
- 23-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.8 Units / 17.16% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 6.46% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.9 Units / -13.66% ROI
Guardians vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Guardians vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Guardians vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta had a strike rate of just 58% (596/1,019) in two strike counts in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 52% (73/141) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .118 (11 Total Bases / 93 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .253 — 97th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 61% (2,319/3,813) since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
14 of Ben Lively’s 46 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 99th Percentile.
Ben Lively has walked 2% of right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 10% (7/69) against Ben Lively with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 13% (16/124) against Ben Lively this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Brewers are 108-73 (.597) at home since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Brewers were 47-34 (.580) at home in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Brewers are 37-30 (.552) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Guardians (third best runs allowed) today.
The Brewers are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .044.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 90-3 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .861.
The Guardians are 82-9 (.891) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .809.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters came to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,726 of their 6,170 plate appearances (28%) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Guardians are batting just .294 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 55% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Brewers pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 58% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Brewers vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
