Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Feb 24

MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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The Milwaukee Brewers (-105) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the San Diego Padres (-115) on Saturday, February 24, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Peoria, AZ.

Last season, the Brewers were 92-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres were 81-81 ATS.

Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Moneyline
Brewers-105
Padres -115

Brewers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.5% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Garrett Mitchell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.35 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Abraham Toro has hit the Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Abraham Toro has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.70 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Abraham Toro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Joey Wiemer has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+4.65 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.45 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.90 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 158 games (+6.70 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 155 games (+17.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread last MLB season, the Brewers went 80-84 against the Run Line (-7.3 Units / -3.54% ROI).

  • 92-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 2.71% ROI
  • 73-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.1 Units / -11.66% ROI
  • 85-73 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 2.53% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread last MLB season, the Padres went 81-81 against the Run Line (-5.85 Units / -2.96% ROI).

  • 82-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.75 Units / -11.1% ROI
  • 66-86 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.75 Units / -16.5% ROI
  • 86-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.45 Units / 8.19% ROI

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Brewers were 23-0 (1.000) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .790.

The Brewers were 22-9 (.710) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .508.

The Brewers were 19-39 (.328) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .220.

The Brewers are 25-23 (.521) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.

The Padres were just 1-65 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Padres are 48-7 (.873) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Padres are just 14-28 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.

Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

Brewers hitters slugged just .242 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.

Brewers hitters slugged just .366 on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

The Brewers batted just .219 with two outs in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.

The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.

The Padres were just 2-13 (-73.5% ROI) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres hitters had a swing rate of just 44% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Padres hitters had an OBP of .343 (1,699 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.

Brewers pitchers had an ERA of 3.82 (703.0 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.

Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.

Brewers pitchers had an ERA of 3.73 (1443.0 IP) in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.

The Brewers allowed 3.99 runs per game (647/162) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.62.

Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,898 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 37% against the Padres pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .197 against Padres pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.

Padres vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
  • Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
  • Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Personal, Day-To-Day
  • Manny Machado (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Day-To-Day
  • Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, Out
  • Gary Sanchez (San Diego Padres): Hand, Out
  • J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
  • Aaron Ashby (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Out
  • Elvis Peguero (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, Out
  • Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, Out
  • Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, Out

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.