- The Phillies are -190 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Brewers / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+155) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-190) on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 36-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 35-27 ATS.
Brewers vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby 0-1, 9.01 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 7-2, 3.06 ERA
Brewers vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -120 | O 8.5 -105 | +155 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -115 | -190 |
Brewers vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 59.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 13 games (+15.00 Units / 115% ROI)
- Sal Frelick has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+11.10 Units / 85% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+10.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 17 games at home (+13.70 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+12.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+11.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 63% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 61 games (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+9.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+7.89 Units / 10% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 45 games (+21.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 46 games (+17.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 47 games (+17.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 45 games (+16.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 43 games (+14.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 34-27 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 5.15% ROI).
- 36-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.6 Units / 14.24% ROI
- 34-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.85 Units / 10.22% ROI
- 25-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -18.23% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 35-27 against the Run Line (+9 Units / 12.02% ROI).
- 43-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.4 Units / 13.88% ROI
- 27-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -10.35% ROI
- 31-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 1.54% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Ashby has had third base stolen on him 6 times since the 2022 season — tied for 13th most in MLB — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (285/785) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (414/1,284) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .189 (122-for-644) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .232 (155 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .300 — 97th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Brewers are 44-99 (.308) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 30-54 (.357) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 33-29 (.532) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Brewers are 33-27 (.550) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Phillies are 23-21 (.523) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Phillies are 13-138 (.086) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are 76-133 (.364) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Phillies are 10-78 (.114) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .235 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .346 (1,059 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
The Brewers have scored 5.57 runs per game (156/28) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .424 against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .751 (5,903 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .327 (5,903 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .326 (1,565 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 37% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.70 (988.1 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Brewers pitchers have won 43% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 34 of 543 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .136 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Phillies have won 67% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Phillies have won 56% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Phillies vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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