- The Pirates are -145 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Brewers / Pirates TV Channel: SNPT | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers (+120) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-145) on Monday, April 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 14-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 12-10 ATS.
Brewers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Joe Ross 1-1, 4.91 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jared Jones 1-2, 3.13 ERA
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -185 | O 7.5 -115 | +120 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +150 | U 7.5 -105 | -145 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Wade Miley has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+6.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Andruw Monasterio has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+5.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- Andruw Monasterio has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.90 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+6.30 Units / 79% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.05 Units / 61% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 away games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 12-8 against the Run Line (+3.45 Units / 11.96% ROI).
- 14-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.85 Units / 39.95% ROI
- 13-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.5 Units / 24.94% ROI
- 7-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.15 Units / -32.35% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-10 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.33% ROI).
- 11-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.41% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 4.57% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.25 Units / -13.35% ROI
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ross has located his fastball up for a strike just 41% (27/65) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Joe Ross has thrown his slider 44% of the time (105/240) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total SL; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 32% (21/65) against Joe Ross on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 48% — fifth Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 3 of Joe Ross’ 37 elevated fastballs out of the zone (8%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 27% — second Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jared Jones has a strike rate of 75% (234/313) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Jared Jones has a strikeout rate of 60% (32 SO in 53 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Jared Jones has struck out 42% (21/50) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (73/187) against Jared Jones this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 29-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Brewers are 24-45 (.348) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Brewers are 20-14 (.588) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Brewers are 43-14 (.754) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .689.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 12-19 (.387) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 108-26 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Pirates are just 142-168 (.458) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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